人口老龄化对我国出口贸易规模的影响——基于多期双重差分模型的分析

The Impact of Population Aging on the Scale of China’s Export Trade—Analysis Based on Multi-Period Difference-in-Differences Model

摘要: 本文基于多期双重差分模型的方法，探究人口老龄化对我国出口贸易规模的影响。使用2006~2021年的省级面板数据，选取出口贸易总额作为被解释变量，人口老龄化程度作为解释变量，同时还设置了劳动力供给质量、劳动力成本、外商投资水平、经济发展水平4个控制变量进行研究。研究表明：我国人口老龄化程度对出口贸易规模具有显著的正相关性，老龄化程度的加剧总体上显著地提高了我国出口贸易规模；同时外商投资水平和经济发展水平对出口贸易规模有着显著的正向关系，且劳动力成本和劳动力供给质量对出口贸易规模有着显著的负向关系。同时，多期双重差分模型通过了平行趋势假设和安慰剂检验，且在稳健性检验中验证了模型结果的可靠性和稳健性。基于本文的研究结论，文后提出相应的建议，为我国进一步扩大出口贸易规模提供理论支持。

Abstract: Based on the method of Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods model, this paper explores the impact of population aging on the scale of China’s export trade. Using the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2021, the total export trade is selected as the explained variable, and the degree of population aging is used as the explanatory variable. At the same time, four control variables of labor supply quality, labor cost, foreign investment level and economic development level are set up for research. The research shows that the degree of population aging in China has a significant positive correlation with the scale of export trade, and the aggravation of the degree of aging has significantly increased the scale of China’s export trade. At the same time, the level of foreign investment and the level of economic development have a significant positive relationship with the scale of export trade, and labor costs and labor supply quality have a sig-nificant negative relationship with the scale of export trade. At the same time, the Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods model passed the parallel trend hypothesis and the placebo test, and the reliability and robustness of the model results were verified in the robustness test. Based on the research conclusions of this paper, the corresponding suggestions are put forward to provide theoretical support for China to further expand the scale of export trade.