互联网与养老服务产业协同发展研究——基于耦合协调与灰色关联模型

Research on the Synergistic Development of Internet and Elderly Service Industry—Based on Coupled Coordination and Grey Correlation Model

摘要: 中国正面临着日益增长的人口老龄化，但传统居家养老的作用日益弱化，养老需求与供给之间的矛盾日益突出，开放、平等、协同、共享的网络环境有望成为解决这一问题的有效途径。但是，在养老服务业和互联网产业之间，怎样才能更好地融合，推动产业发展方面，仍然存在着一大片的空白。鉴于此，本文基于产业协同发展的视角，对养老服务业与互联网产业的耦合机理做出分析，并对2016年到2020年养老服务业与互联网产业耦合动态发展水平做出定量测度评价，结果得出互联网产业和养老服务业耦合度总体呈现良好发展趋势。通过灰色关联模型探寻影响两业耦合协调度的因素，结果得出老年人互联网使用比例、国有资产对养老机构资金投入、信息技术服务收入对我国养老服务与互联网产业的协调发展水平具有较大影响。

Abstract: China is facing a growing aging population, but the role of traditional home care is weakening, the contradiction between the demand and supply of elderly care is becoming increasingly prominent, and an open, equal, collaborative and shared network environment is expected to be an effective way to solve this problem. However, there is still a large gap in terms of how to better integrate and promote the development of the industry between the senior care service industry and the Internet industry. In view of this, this paper is based on the perspective of industrial synergistic development, to make an analysis of the coupling mechanism between the elderly service industry and the Internet industry, and to make a quantitative evaluation of the dynamic development level of the coupling between the elderly service industry and the Internet industry from 2016 to 2020, and the results conclude that the coupling degree of the Internet industry and the elderly service industry shows a good development trend in general. Through the grey correlation model to explore the factors affecting the degree of coupling and coordination of the two industries, the results concluded that the proportion of elderly people’s Internet use, the state-owned assets of the financial investment in senior care institutions, and information technology service income have a greater impact on the level of coordinated development of China’s senior care services and Internet industry.