基于土地利用与水资源变化的和田河流域绿洲适宜规模分析
Analysis of the Suitable Scale of Oasis in the Hotan River Basin Based on Changes in Land Use and Water Resources
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2023.125056, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 徐永波：新疆塔里木河流域和田管理局，新疆 和田；李 江：新疆塔里木河流域管理局，新疆 库尔勒；侯一峰*, 朱成刚：荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室，中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，新疆 乌鲁木齐
关键词: 和田河流域；绿洲演变；适宜规模；土地利用；Hotan River Basin； Oasis Evolution； Suitable Size； Land Use
摘要: 随着经济的快速发展，和田河流域耕地与绿洲发展规模不断扩大，探究和田河流域土地发展与绿洲演变对其可持续发展具有重要意义。本文采用遥感数据、土地利用转移矩阵和水热平衡法等方法，探究和田河流域土地利用格局与绿洲演变、绿洲适宜规模及耕地适宜面积。结果表明：1) 1990~2020年，流域内耕地和草地面积增加和未利用地面积减少十分显著，并且明显转化为其他土地类型。期间耕地面积增长率高达36.12%，未利用地共减少1435.99 km2。2) 期间流域内绿洲面积增加了454.11 km2，2000~2010年显著增加。3) 在“绿度”取值0.75和1时，适宜绿洲规模分别为4381.40 km2和5841.87 km2，适宜耕地面积范围则分别在1314.40~1752.53 km2和1752.53~2336.73 km2。随着流域耕地和绿洲规模不断扩张，需要科学推进绿洲发展，建设高标准节水农田。
Abstract: The development scale of arable land and oasis in Hotan River basin is expanding with the rapid economic development, and it is of great significance to explore the land development and oasis evolution for its sustainable development. In this paper, the remote sensing data, land use transfer matrix and water-heat balance method are used to explore the land use pattern and oasis evolution in the Hotan River basin, the suitable scale of oasis and the suitable area of arable land. The results show that: 1) From 1990 to 2020, the increase in the area of cultivated land and grassland and the decrease in the area of unutilized land are very significant, and they are obviously transformed into other land types. During this period, the growth rate of arable land area was as high as 36.12%, and the unutilized land area decreased by 1435.99 km2. 2) The oasis area of the basin increased by 454.11 km2 during the period, and the oasis area in-creased significantly from 2000 to 2010. 3) When the value of “greenness” is 0.75 and 1, the suitable size of oasis is 4381.40 km2 and 5841.87 km2 respectively, and the suitable area of cultivated land ranges from 1314.40~1752.53 km2 and 1752.53~2336.73 km2 respectively. As the size of arable land and oases con-tinues to expand, it is necessary to scientifically promote the development of oases and build high-standard water-saving farmland.
文章引用：徐永波, 李江, 侯一峰, 朱成刚. 基于土地利用与水资源变化的和田河流域绿洲适宜规模分析[J]. 水资源研究, 2023, 12(5): 509-5018. https://doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2023.125056

参考文献

[1] HALMY, M. W. A., GESSLER, P. E., HICKE, J. A. and SALEM, B. Land use/land cover change detection and prediction in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt using Markov-CA. Applied Geography, 2015, 63: 101-112.[CrossRef] 
[2] FEI, S., FANG, L. S., CHEN, X. M. and DI, S. Analysis of driving forces on wetland ecosystem services value change: A case in northeast China. Science of the Total Environment, 2021, 751: 141778.[CrossRef] [PubMed]
[3] CHANG, Y. W., BO, W. C., XIAN, J. H. and WEI, Y. H. D. Effect of land-use change and optimization on the ecosystem service values of Jiangsu province, China. Ecological Indicators, 2020, 117(15): 106507. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[4] HAMAD, R., BALZTER, H. and KOLO, K. Predicting land use/land cover changes using a CA-Markov model under two different scenarios. Sustainability, 2018, 10: 3421.[CrossRef] 
[5] LIU, L., LIANG, Y. and HASHIMOTO, S. Integrated assessment of land-use/coverage changes and their impacts one cosystem services in Gansu province, northwest China: Implications for sus-tainable development goals. Sustainability Science, 2019, 15: 297-314.[CrossRef] 
[6] YUAN, X. F., HAN, J. C., SHAO, Y. J., et al. Geodetection analysis of the driving forces and mechanisms of erosion in the hilly-gully region of northern Shaanxi province. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(5): 779-790. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[7] LIU, X. F., ZHU, X. F., PAN, Y. Z., et al. Vegetation dynamics in Qin-ling-Daba Mountains in relation to climate factors between 2000 and 2014. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(1): 45-58. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[8] 赵松乔. 人类活动对西北干旱区地理环境的作用: 绿洲化或荒漠化? [J]. 干旱区研究, 1987, 4(3): 9-18. ZHAO Songqiao. The role of human activities on the geography of the northwest arid zone: Oasis or desertification? Arid Zone Research, 1987, 4(3): 9-18. (in Chinese)
[9] 胡隐樵, 左洪超. 绿洲环境形成机制和干旱区生态环境建设对策[J]. 高原气象, 2003(22): 537-544. HU Yinqiao, ZUO Hongchao. Forming mechanism of oasis environment and building countermeasure of ecological environment in arid area. Plateau Meteorology, 2003(22): 537-544. (in Chinese)
[10] 王昱丁, 郑航, 赵建世. 人类活动干扰下西北干旱区绿洲迁移演化研究[J]. 水力发电学报, 2019, 38(3): 40-52. WANG Yuding, ZHENG Hang and ZHAO Jianshi. Evolution of oases under human interference in arid northwest China. Jour-nal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2019, 38(3): 40-52. (in Chinese)
[11] 陈亚宁, 陈忠升. 干旱区绿洲演变与适宜发展规模研究——以塔里木河流域为例[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2013(21): 134-140. CHEN Yaning, CHEN Zhongsheng. Study on the evolution and suitable development scale of oasis in arid areas—Taking the Ta-rim River Basin as an example. Chinese Journal of Ecological Agriculture, 2013(21): 134-140. (in Chinese)
[12] 高华君. 我国绿洲的分布和类型[J]. 干旱区地理, 1987(4): 23-29. GAO Huajun. Distribution and types of oases in China. Geography of Arid Zones, 1987(4): 23-29. (in Chinese)
[13] 黄盛璋. 论绿洲研究与绿洲学[J]. 中国历史地理论丛, 1990(2): 1-24. HUANG Shengzhang. On oasis research and oasis studies. Chinese Historical Geography, 1990(2): 1-24. (in Chinese)
[14] 王涛. 我国绿洲化及其研究的若干问题初探[J]. 中国沙漠, 2010, 30(5): 995-998. WANG Tao. A preliminary study on oasisization and its research in China. Desert China, 2010, 30(5): 995-998. (in Chi-nese)
[15] CHEN, Y., XU, C., HAO, X., LI, W., CHEN, Y., ZHU, C. and YE, Z. Fifty-year climate change and its effect on annual runoff in the Tarim River Basin, China. Quaternary International, 2009, 208: 53-61.[CrossRef] 
[16] JIE, W., JUN, W. and XIN, S. Analysis of water change along Hotan River basin. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2013, 32: 142-148.
[17] CHEN, Y., TAKEUCHI, K., XU, C., CHEN, Y. and XU, Z. Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 2006, 20: 2207-2216.[CrossRef] 
[18] 张丽丽, 邓晓雅, 龙爱华, 等. 基于农业水足迹的水资源安全时空变化分析——以新疆和田地区为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(2): 436-447. ZHANG Lili, DANG Xiaoya, LONG Aihua, et al. Analysis of spatial and temporal variations in water security based on agricul-tural water footprints—A case study of Hotan area, Xinjiang. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(2): 436-447. (in Chinese)
[19] XUE, X., MI, Y., LI, Z. and CHEN, Y. Long-term trends and sustainability analysis of air temperature and precipitation in the Hotan River Basin. Resources Science, 2008, 30: 1833-1838.
[20] SINGH, S. K., LAARI, P. B., MUSTAK, S., SRIVASTAVA, P. K. and SZABÓ, S. Modelling of land use land cover change using earth observation datasets of Tons River Basin, Madhya Pradesh, India. Geocarto International, 2018, 33: 1202-1222.[CrossRef] 
[21] LONG, H., LIU, Y., HOU, X., et al. Effects of land use transitions due to rapid urbanization on ecosystem services: Implications for urban planning in the new developing area of China. Habitat In-ternational, 2014, 44: 536-544.[CrossRef] 
[22] 史晓楠, 王全九, 王新, 等. 参考作物腾发量计算方法在新疆地区的适用性研究[J]. 农业工程学报, 2006, 22(6): 19-23. SHI Xiaonan, WANG Quanjiu, WANG Xin, et al. Applicability of the reference crop yield calculation method in Xinjiang. Jour-nal of Agricultural Engineering, 2006, 22(6): 19-23. (in Chinese)
[23] 申双和, 张方敏, 盛琼. 1975-2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 2009, 25(1): 11-15. SHEN Shuanghe, ZHANG Fangmin and SHENG Qiong. Characteristics of spatial and temporal variations of wetness index in China from 1975 to 2004. Journal of Agricultural Engineering, 2009, 25(1): 11-15. (in Chinese)
[24] 秦大河, 周波涛, 效存德. 冰冻圈变化及其对中国气候的影响[J]. 气象学报, 2014, 72(5): 869-879. QIN Dahe, ZHOU Botao and XIAO Cunde. Progress in studies of cryospheric changes and their impacts on climate of China, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(5): 869-879. (in Chinese)
[25] 王忠静, 王海峰, 雷志栋. 干旱内陆河区绿洲稳定性分析[J]. 水利学报, 2002(5): 26-30. WANG Zhongjing, WANG Haifeng and LEI Zhidong. Stability analysis of oases in arid inland river areas. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2002(5): 26-30. (in Chinese)