基于空间化数据的雷电灾害风险区划——以长三角为例

Lightning Hazard Risk Zoning Based on Spatialized Data—A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta

摘要: 本文使用长三角地区统计年鉴、土地覆盖数据、NDVI、DMSP/OLS夜间灯光及DEM数据建立人口、GDP数据空间化模型，对长三角地区雷电灾害进行精细化评估。结果如下：1) 采用修正后的夜间灯光指数与NVDI拟合出来的人居指数误差为32.28%，经过道路网密度拟合和线性方程纠正后得到的长三角人口模型误差修正为25.42%；统计农、林、渔、牧面积并经过拟合和多元回归分析后得到的GDP空间化模型误差为24.30%。2) 雷电灾害风险评估主要基于致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体三个因子。长三角雷电高风险区域主要分布在舟山市、宁波市、绍兴市、杭州市等雷电发生较多的地区以及上海市、南京市、无锡市等经济发达、人口密集的城市。

Abstract: In this paper, we use the statistical yearbook of Yangtze River Delta (YRD), land cover data, NDVI, DMSP/OLS nighttime lighting and DEM data to establish spatialized models of population and GDP data to refine the assessment of lightning hazards in the YRD region. The results are as follows: 1) The error of the Habitat Index fitted by the modified nighttime lighting index and NVDI is about 32.28%, and the error of the population model of the Yangtze River Delta obtained by fitting the density of the road network and correcting the linear equations is corrected to 25.42%; and the error of the spatialized model of GDP obtained by counting the area of agriculture, forestry, fishery, and pasture is 25.42% after the fittings and the multivariate regression analyses. 2) The risk assessment of lightning disaster mainly adopts three factors: disaster-causing factor, disaster-conceiving environment and disaster-bearing body. The high-risk areas of lightning in the Yangtze River Delta are mainly distributed in Zhoushan City, Ningbo City, Shaoxing City, Hangzhou City and other areas with more lightning occurrences, as well as Shanghai City, Nanjing City, Wuxi City and other economically developed and densely populated cities.