我国基本养老保险基金发展预测——基于GM(1,1)模型分析

Forecast on the Development of Chinese Basic Endowment Insurance Fund—Based on GM(1,1) Model Analysis

摘要: 文章回顾了2014~2021年我国基本养老保险、城镇职工基本养老保险及城乡居民基本养老保险的收入、支出及结余情况，运用GM(1,1)模型预测分析2022~2031年我国基本养老保险、城镇职工基本养老保险及城乡居民基本养老保险的收入、支出、结余的变化以及未来发展趋势。结果：2022~2031年我国基本养老保险、城镇职工基本养老保险、城乡居民养老保险收支规模、基金结余持续增长。结论：基本医疗保险总体运行收入增长幅度低于支出增长幅度，城镇职工养老保险发展趋势不够合理，需警惕城乡居民基本养老保险补贴城镇职工基本养老保险的“逆向分配”的情况。对于未来发展，基本养老保险的定位需更明晰、建立多层次多支柱的养老保险体系满足不同群体的养老需求，同时确保基金的可持续发展。

Abstract: The article reviews the revenues, expenditures and balances of China’s basic pension insurance, urban workers’ basic pension insurance and urban and rural residents’ basic pension insurance from 2014 to 2021. The GM(1,1) model is utilized to forecast and analyze the fluctuations in income, expenditure, and balance of China’s basic old-age insurance schemes: basic old-age insurance, basic old-age insurance for urban workers, and basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents from 2022 to 2031. Additionally, it aims to identify future development trends. Results: The scale of income and expenditure and fund balance of China’s basic pension insur-ance, basic pension insurance for urban workers and urban and rural residents will continue to grow from 2022 to 2031. Conclusion: The overall growth rate of basic medical insurance is lower than the growth rate of expenditures; the development trend of urban workers’ pension insurance is not reasonable enough, and we need to be vigilant about the “reverse distribution” of urban and rural residents’ basic pension insurance subsidising urban workers’ basic pension insurance. For future development, the positioning of basic pension insurance needs to be made clearer, and a multi-level, multi-pillar pension insurance system needs to be established to meet the pension needs of different groups, while ensuring the sustainable development of the fund.