基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的上海重度人口老龄化趋势预测

Prediction of Heavy Population Aging Trend in Shanghai—Based on Gray GM(1,1) Modeling

摘要: 人口老龄化是指人口中老年人比重日益上升的现象，尤其是指在已经达到老年状态的人口中，老年人口比重继续提高的过程。对上海老年人口的调查研究显示，上海早已步入重度老龄化社会，且增长速度较快。运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对上海65岁以上人口进行预测，结果显示，上海2030年、2035年65岁及以上人口预测值为694.1821万人、937.18754万人。检验表明，该模型可靠性高。最后，根据模型(1,1)的实证结果分析，给出相应的对策建议，即实施更为灵活的生育政策、提升养老服务体系、打造数字化老年生活，加强医疗体系建设以及建设多元化的养老金体系。

Abstract: Population aging refers to the phenomenon of the increasing proportion of elderly people in the population, especially the process of continuing to increase the proportion of elderly people in the population that has already reached the state of old age. A survey and research on the elderly population in Shanghai shows that Shanghai has long stepped into a heavily poisoned aging society, and the growth rate is fast. Using the gray prediction model GM(1,1) to predict the population over 65 years old in Shanghai, the results show that the predicted value of the population aged 65 years old and above in 2030 and 2035 in Shanghai is 6,941,821,000 and 9,371,875,440,000 people. The test shows that the model is highly reliable. Finally, based on the analysis of the empirical results of the model (1,1), the corresponding countermeasure suggestions are given, namely, implementing a more flexible fertility policy, upgrading the pension service system, creating a digital senior life, and strengthening the construction of the medical system.