人民币汇率波动对中美贸易结构的影响

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Trade Structure between China and the United States

摘要: 本研究旨在探讨人民币汇率波动对中美贸易结构的影响。首先对汇率变动的研究现状和对贸易的影响进行了综述和回顾，然后从人民币汇率波动的理论基础、中美贸易结构分类以及影响贸易的非汇率因素等方面进行了理论分析。通过对进出口产品结构变迁和竞争力的测算，发现中美贸易结构已经发生了变化。在对汇率波动对贸易结构的影响进行回顾的基础上，研究选取了相关变量并进行了模型回归与结果分析。结果表明，人民币汇率波动确实对中美贸易结构产生了影响。具体而言，人民币贬值会增加我国出口产品价格的竞争力，同时降低进口产品进入我国市场的价格，进而导致出口贸易结构发生变化，进口贸易结构也会受到一定程度的影响。因此，为了维护中美贸易结构的平衡并保持我国的出口竞争力，在政策层面上建议加强汇率管理和控制，稳定人民币汇率在合理区间。

Abstract: This study was to explore the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the impact of Sino-US trade structure. First of all, the research status of exchange rate changes and the impact on the trade were summarized and reviewed, and then from the theoretical basis of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the classification of Sino-US trade structure and the non currency factors affecting trade and so on were analyzed in theory. By measuring the structure changes and competitiveness of the import and export products, it was found that Sino-US trade structure had changed. On the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade structure on the basis of review, the study selected the relevant variables and the regression model and the result analysis. The results show that the RMB exchange rate fluctuations indeed have an influence on the Sino-US trade structure. Specifically, depreciation will increase the competitiveness of our country’s export product price, and at the same time reduce the price of imported products into our market, leading to changes in export trade structure, and the structure of import trade will be affected by a certain degree. Therefore, in order to maintain the balance of the trade structure between China and the United States and keep our country’s export competitiveness, it is recommended to strengthen the ex-change rate management and control at the policy level, and stabilize the RMB exchange rate in a reasonable range.