国家重点生态功能区“碳排放–人口–经济”耦合协调及其驱动因素研究

Research on the Coupling Coordination and Driving Factors of “Carbon Emissions-Population-Economy” in National Key Ecological Functional Areas

摘要: 运用熵值法、ArcGIS自然断点法、耦合协调模型、地理探测器等方法，测度国家重点生态功能区及其毗邻区涉及黑龙江64县及12个地级市市辖区(杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县除外) 2005~2019年15年间“碳排放–人口–经济”系统耦合协调度，分析其相互作用及协调程度。运用地理探测器探测影响“碳排放–人口–经济”系统协调发展的因素。结果表明：(1) 2005年以来研究区域内各城市碳排放总量以及人口数量都呈现出先上升后下降并逐步趋于稳定的趋势；经济在15年间呈现稳步上升的态势。(2) 研究区域内各城市三大系统耦合状态良好，相互作用强，发展平稳有序但略有下降的趋势。协调度呈现出由北向南阶梯状分布，整体协调发展状况较差的局面。(3) “碳排放–人口–经济”系统协调发展是多因子交互作用的结果。应因地制宜节能减排，调整产业结构来提升区域耦合协调发展水平。

Abstract: Using methods such as entropy method, ArcGIS natural breakpoint method, coupling coordination model, and geographic detector, this paper measures the coupling coordination of the “carbon emissions-population-economy” system in 64 counties and 12 prefecture level cities and districts (excluding Durbert Mongolian Autonomous County) of Heilongjiang Province and their adjacent areas from 2005 to 2019, and analyzes their interaction and coordination degree, using geographic detectors to detect factors that affect the coordinated development of the carbon emissions population economy system. The results indicate (1) since 2005, the total carbon emissions and population of each city in the study area have shown a trend of first increasing, then decreasing, and gradually stabilizing; The economy has shown a steady upward trend over the past 15 years; (2) The three major systems of each city in the study area have good coupling status, strong interaction, and stable and orderly development, but there is a slight downward trend. The coordination degree shows a stepped distribution from north to south, and the overall coordinated development status is poor; (3) The coordinated development of the “carbon emissions population economy” system is the result of the interaction of multiple factors. Energy conservation and emission reduction should be tailored to local conditions, and industrial structure should be adjusted to enhance the level of regional coupling and coordinated development.