经济政策不确定性对商业银行经营绩效的影响研究

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Business Performance of Commercial Banks

摘要: 文章基于中国16家商业银行2007~2022年的平衡面板数据，运用最小二乘法实证检验了经济政策不确定性对商业银行经营绩效的影响效应。结果表明：(1) 经济政策不确定性与商业银行的绩效呈现负相关。随着经济政策不确定性的增加，银行的运营绩效会减弱。在经过多种稳健性检验以及使用动态面板模型和工具变量的内生性检验后，研究结果保持稳健。(2) 异质性分析表明，在竞争程度大、抗风险能力弱、非国有属性以及规模较小的银行中，经济政策不确定性强化了对商业银行绩效的负向影响。(3) 机制分析表明，非利息收入占比能够缓冲经济政策不确定性对银行经营绩效的负向影响，而不良贷款率又显著强化了这种负向影响。

Abstract: The article utilizes balanced panel data from 16 Chinese commercial banks spanning from 2007 to 2022. It empirically examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the performance of commercial banks using the least squares method. Results indicate that: (1) Economic policy uncertainty is negatively correlated with the performance of commercial banks. The greater the economic policy uncertainty, the lower the bank operating performance will be. The results of the study remain robust after various robustness tests as well as endogeneity tests using dynamic panel models and instrumental variables. (2) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that in highly competitive, less risk-resistant, non-state-owned, and smaller-scale banks, economic policy uncertainty intensifies the negative impact on the performance of commercial banks. (3) Mechanism analysis shows that the proportion of non-interest income helps to mitigate the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on the operational performance of banks, while the non-performing loan ratio significantly reinforces this negative impact.