更新通告对动态理性排队系统的影响研究

Research on the Effect of Additional Announcement on Queuing Systems with Dynamic Rationality

摘要: 在队列不可见的排队系统中，决策是否向排队中的顾客实施更新通告以及何时更新通告对企业至关重要。本文建立了一个排队仿真模型来模拟按服务收取统一费用的不可见队列排队系统，并考虑了多种排队场景，包括不同的系统负载和不同的企业导向，以探讨更新通告对系统性能的影响。在对顾客排队行为进行建模时，本文将顾客理性纳入对顾客离队决策行为的建模中，并假设顾客理性会发生动态变化，借鉴量子响应模型来实现对顾客动态理性的建模。同时，本文考虑了顾客异质性，为顾客分配不同的初始耐心。本文通过仿真实验获取实验数据，并对实验数据进行分析，以为企业提供排队管理建议。实验结果表明，更新通告仅在部分排队场景中发挥正效应，有效引导顾客理性动态变化能使更新通告发挥价值。

Abstract: In invisible queuing systems, the decision of whether and when to announce the additional announcement to customers is critical to the company. In this paper, a simulation model is built to simulate an invisible queuing system that charges a uniform fee for services, and multiple queuing scenarios including different system congestion and different company goals are considered to explore the impact of additional announcements on system performance. In the modelling of custom-er behavior, we include customer rationality in modeling customers’ balking decision behavior, and assumes that customer rationality will change dynamically, drawing on the quantal response model to model dynamic rationality. Meanwhile, we consider customer heterogeneity, assign customers different initial patience. We perform simulation experiments and analyze the experimental data which help us give sound management suggestions. The experimental results show that the additional announcements play a positive effect in some queuing scenarios, and effectively guiding the dynamic rationality can make additional announcements play a value.