基于SWAT模型的沙河流域气候变化对径流的影响
The Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Shahe River Basin Based on the SWAT Model
DOI: 10.12677/AG.2024.141002, PDF,   
作者: 赵 娴, 刘光辉, 刘芮廷：河北工程大学水利水电学院，河北 邯郸；孙建伟：邯郸市水利局节约用水促进中心，河北 邯郸；吕正虎：河北省邢台水文勘测研究中心，河北 邢台；任 帅：河北工程大学地球科学与工程学院，河北 邯郸
关键词: 气候变化；SWAT模型；沙河流域；径流；Climate Change； SWAT Model； Shahe River Basin； Runoff
摘要: 为了探讨气候变化下沙河流域地表径流演变趋势以及其对径流的影响，本文基于1960~2020年沙河流域逐日气象水文数据，采用统计分析法对比分析了流域降水、温度和径流的演变趋势性和突变性，并结合沙河流域1980、1990、2000、2010、2020年五期土地利用数据，建立了多时段沙河流域SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型。根据未来趋势设置不同气候变化情景，分析了沙河流域径流对气候变化的响应。研究结果表明：1) SWAT模型在沙河流域径流模拟中具有较好的适用性，率定期和验证期的相关系数(R2)均在0.6以上，Nash-Sutcliffe纳什效率系数(Ens)均在0.5以上，相对误差(Re)均在±25%以内。2) 过去61年沙河流域温度呈显著上升趋势，降水量下降不明显，而实测径流量呈显著下降趋势。3) 不同气候变化情景下的模拟表明，研究区径流与降水呈正相关，与温度呈负相关，且径流对降水变化的敏感程度高于径流对温度变化的敏感程度。
Abstract: To explore the evolution trends of surface runoff in the Shahe River Basin under climate change and its impacts, we used daily meteorological and hydrological data from 1960 to 2020 in the Shahe River Basin. We employed a statistical analysis method to compare and analyze the trend and abrupt changes in precipitation, temperature, and runoff in the basin. Additionally, we established a multi-period SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model for the Shahe River Basin, considering land use data for five periods in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. We set different climate change scenarios according to the future trends to analyze the response of runoff in the Shahe River Basin to climate change. The research results indicate: 1) The SWAT model demonstrates good applicability in simulating runoff in the Shahe River Basin, with correlation coefficients (R²) above 0.6 during the calibration and validation periods, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (Ens) above 0.5, and relative errors (Re) within ±25%. 2) Over the past 61 years, the temperature in the Shahe River Basin showed a significant upward trend, with a less pronounced decrease in precipitation, while observed runoff exhibited a significant decreasing trend. 3) Simulations under different climate change scenarios revealed that runoff in the study area is positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Runoff is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to changes in temperature.
文章引用：赵娴, 孙建伟, 吕正虎, 刘光辉, 任帅, 刘芮廷. 基于SWAT模型的沙河流域气候变化对径流的影响[J]. 地球科学前沿, 2024, 14(1): 12-29. https://doi.org/10.12677/AG.2024.141002

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