基于VECM模型的湖北省经济增长、环境污染和能源消耗的关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth, Environmental Pollution, and Energy Consumption in Hubei Province Based on the VECM Model

摘要: 本文将2000~2019年湖北省SO₂的排放数据和湖北省人均生产总值以及湖北省人均原油消耗量，分别作为污染指标、经济增长指标、能源消耗指标，用以探究湖北省经济增长、环境污染和能源消耗关系。通过建立VECM模型，经由Johansen检验和Granger因果关系检验的分析，探讨湖北省经济增长与环境污染和能源消耗这三种指标在时间维度上的相互影响的机制与动态关系。研究结果表明：湖北省的经济–环境–能源之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系，且环境污染与经济呈现负相关关系，与能源呈正相关关系；环境污染与能源消耗对经济的影响较大，环境污染会抑制经济的发展，而能源消耗会促进经济的增长。

Abstract: This article will explore the relationship between economic growth, environmental pollution, and energy consumption in Hubei Province by using SO₂ emission data from 2000 to 2019, per capita GDP, and per capita crude oil consumption in Hubei Province. By establishing a VECM model and analyzing the Johansen test and Granger causality test, this study explores the mechanism and dynamic relationship of the interaction between economic growth, environmental pollution, and energy consumption in Hubei Province in the time dimension. The research results indicate that there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the economy, environment, and energy in Hubei Province, and environmental pollution is negatively correlated with the economy, while positively correlated with energy; Environmental pollution and energy consumption have a significant impact on the economy. Environmental pollution will inhibit economic development, while energy consumption will promote economic growth.