京津冀碳排放影响因素分解及碳达峰预测研究

Decomposition of Carbon Emission Factors and Prediction of Carbon Peak in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

摘要: 京津冀作为中国核心经济区和碳排放的重点区域，尽早达峰对于实现我国碳达峰目标具有十分重要的意义。文章运用灰色关联分析方法，筛选影响碳排放的因子，利用LMDI模型分解影响因子，分析各影响因子对碳排放量的贡献度，设置5种不同情景，针对每种情景采用STIRPAT模型进行碳排放未来趋势预测。研究结果表明：(1) 政府干预、城镇化率、人均GDP、产业结构和能源强度显著影响京津冀城市群碳排放；(2) 能源强度和能源结构变动呈现出抑制碳排放的效应，经济发展与人口增长变动呈现出促进碳排放的效应；(3) 京津冀整体有望在2030年前实现碳达峰。最后针对不同城市提出差异化的建议，从调整能源结构、落实政策制度、优化产业结构来实现京津冀地区碳达峰目标。

Abstract: As the core economic zone and the key area of carbon emission in China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is of great significance to reach its carbon peak as soon as possible. In this paper, the grey correlation analysis method is used to screen the factors that affect carbon emissions, the LMDI model is used to decompose the impact factors, and the contribution of each impact factor to carbon emissions is analyzed. Five different scenarios are set up, and the STIRPAT model is used to predict the future trend of carbon emissions for each scenario. The results show that: (1) Government intervention, urbanization rate, per capita GDP, industrial structure and energy intensity significantly affect carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster; (2) changes in energy intensity and energy structure inhibit carbon emissions, while changes in economic development and population growth promote carbon emissions; (3) the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a whole is expected to reach its carbon peak by 2030. Finally, different suggestions are put forward for different cities, from adjusting the energy structure, implementing the policy system, optimizing the industrial structure to achieve the goal of carbon peak in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.