竞争风险下Fine-Gray模型与Cox模型的比较与评价
Comparison and Evaluation of Fine-Gray and Cox Models under Competitive Risks
摘要: 在生存分析中经常会遇到存在竞争风险的情形，在存在竞争风险情形下，比较Cox模型与Fine-Gray模型估计的分析效果。本文介绍了在存在竞争风险情形下的Fine-Gray模型，举例说明了Fine-Gray模型风险集的定义以及权重计算方法，并利用Cox模型与Fine-Gray模型对实际存在竞争风险的数据集进行了实例分析，结果表明，Fine-Gray模型与Cox模型分析结果不同，尤其是Cox模型会高估事件的累计发生率。因此，在生存分析中存在竞争风险时，选择Fine-Gray模型进行建模是更适合的。
Abstract:
In survival analysis, scenarios with competing risks are frequently encountered. In the presence of competing risks, the analysis performance of the Cox model and the Fine-Gray model is compared. This paper introduces the Fine-Gray model in the context of competing risks, providing a detailed explanation of the definition of the Fine-Gray model’s risk set and the calculation method for weights. Through example analysis using actual data with competing risks, the paper demonstrates that the results of the Fine-Gray model and the Cox model differ, especially with the Cox model overestimating the cumulative incidence of events. Therefore, in survival analysis, when facing competing risks, choosing the Fine-Gray model for modeling is more suitable.
参考文献
|
[1]
|
Kaplan, E.L. and Meier, P. (1958) Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53, 457-481. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
|
|
[2]
|
Cox, D.R. (1972) Re-gression Models and Life-Tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 34, 187-202. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
|
|
[3]
|
Gelman, R., Gelber, R., Henderson, I.C., et al. (1990) Improved Methodology for Analyzing Local and Distant Recurrence. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 8, 548-555. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
|
|
[4]
|
Gooley, T.A., Leisenring, W., Crowley, J., et al. (1999) Estimation of Failure Probabilities in the Presence of Competing Risks: New Representations of Old Estimators. Statistics in Medi-cine, 18, 695-706. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
|
|
[5]
|
Kalbfleisch, J.D. and Prentice, R.L. (2011) The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken.
|
|
[6]
|
Fine, J.P. and Gray, R.J. (1999) A Proportional Hazards Model for the Subdistribution of a Competing Risk. Journal of the Amer-ican Statistical Association, 94, 496-509. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
|
|
[7]
|
朱旭, 陈书, 魏歆然, 等. 基于Fine-Gray竞争风险模型的青年胃癌患者预后影响因素研究[J]. 第二军医大学学报, 2021, 42(10): 1140-1147. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
|
|
[8]
|
钱迪, 涂博祥, 陈枭, 等. 基于Fine-Gray竞争风险模型的小肝癌患者预后模型构建与验证[J]. 中华肿瘤防治杂志, 2023, 30(23): 1435-1443. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
|