天津市旅游收入主要影响因素的实证分析和对策建议

Empirical Analysis and Strategic Recommendations of Key Influencing Factors of Tourism Revenue in Tianjin

摘要: 旅游业作为第三产业是国民经济战略性支柱产业，在经济建设中发挥着重要作用。为了促进天津市旅游业更好地发展，本文搜集了天津市2000~2022年的旅游统计数据，分别以天津市旅游收入、接待国内旅游人数、接待入境旅游人数为被解释变量，选取旅行社数量、城镇居民人均可支配收入、城乡居民收入差距，星级饭店数量、国家等级景区数量为解释变量，建立多元线性回归模型，通过逐步回归法，最终找到旅行社数量、城镇居民人均可支配收入、星级饭店数量是影响天津市旅游收入的主要因素，旅行社数量是影响国内旅游人数的主要因素，旅行社数量和星级饭店数量是影响入境旅游人数的主要因素。通过实证分析找出主要影响因素，并针对主要影响因素提出对策建议，以提高天津市旅游收入，增强天津市旅游业的竞争力，从而促进天津市经济的发展。

Abstract: As the tertiary industry, the tourism sector serves as a strategic pillar in the national economy, playing a crucial role in economic development. To facilitate the better development of the tourism industry in Tianjin, this paper gathers tourism statistical data from the years 2000 to 2022. The interpreted variables include Tianjin’s tourism revenue, the number of domestic tourists received, and the number of inbound tourists received. The explanatory variables selected are the number of travel agencies, per-capita disposable income of urban residents, urban-rural income disparity, the quantity of star-rated hotels, and the number of nationally classified scenic areas. Utilizing a multiple linear regression model and employing a stepwise regression ap-proach, this study identifies that the number of travel agencies, per-capita disposable income of urban residents, and the quantity of star-rated hotels are the primary factors influencing Tian-jin’s tourism revenue. The number of travel agencies emerges as the key determinant affecting the volume of domestic tourists, while both the number of travel agencies and the quantity of star-rated hotels significantly impact the number of inbound tourists. Empirical analysis identifies the key influencing factors, and corresponding strategic recommendations are proposed to enhance Tianjin’s tourism revenue, bolster the competitiveness of its tourism industry, and consequently, promote the overall economic development of Tianjin.