长江流域三维干旱事件演变特征

Evolution Characteristics of Three-Dimensional Drought Events in the Yangtze River Basin

摘要: 气候变化背景下，全球干旱事件频发，严重制约社会经济可持续发展。以往研究大都忽略了干旱的动态过程，本文将干旱事件三维识别方法应用于长江流域气象干旱事件的识别和提取。基于1980~2016年标准降水蒸散发指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI)用干旱的面积、历时、强度、烈度和中心5个特征变量对长江流域干旱事件进行分析。结果表明，SPEI3识别出97个历时3个月及以上的干旱事件。最严重的SPEI3型干旱(2011年1~10月)始于流域中部，止于横断山脉，席卷了长江流域一半以上的地区，受干旱影响最严重的地区是云南北部、四川南部、湖北东南部。该研究有助于研究长江流域干旱事件发展演变进程。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of climate change, frequent global drought events seriously constrain sustainable socio-economic development. Previous studies have mostly overlooked the dynamic process of drought. In this paper, the three-dimensional identification method of drought events is applied to the identification and extraction of meteorological drought events in the Yangtze River Basin. Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 1980 to 2016, this study analyzes drought events in the Yangtze River Basin using five characteristic variables: area, duration, strength, intensity, and center of drought. The results showed that SPEI3 identified 97 drought events lasting for 3 months or more. The most severe SPEI3 drought (January-October 2011) began in the central part of the basin and ended in the Hengduan Mountains, sweeping over more than half of the Yangtze River basin. The areas most severely affected by the drought were northern Yunnan, southern Sichuan, and southeastern Hubei. This study contributes to the study of the development and evolution process of drought events in the Yangtze River Basin.