考虑供需不确定的短生命周期食品供应链风险分担机制研究

Study on Risk-Sharing Mechanism of Short-Life-Cycle Food Supply Chain with Uncertain Supply and Demand

摘要: 随着消费者越来越关注食品的多样性和物流速度的提高，在人们的食品消费支出中，短生命周期食品成为消费者饮食的重要组成部分，这类产品生产提前期长、需求波动大，面临供需不确定的风险。针对短生命周期食品供应链供需不确定风险，探讨其供需不确定的成因，研究短生命周期食品供应链中供应商、制造商、零售商的订货和生产决策。进一步对短生命周期食品供应链进行协调，研究可以促使供应链成员共担供需不确定风险的协调契约。研究表明：(1) 分散决策情况下供应链失调的原因是需求不确定导致零售商订货量减少。(2) 下游协调合同可以分担零售商供应不确定风险，提升零售商订货量，从而提升供应链中各主体利润，实现供应链协调。(3) 考虑上游供应商供应不确定风险，设计了组合契约使得供应链各主体共担供需不确定风险，可以实现供应链协调。

Abstract: With the increasing attention of consumers to the diversity of food and the improvement of logistics speed, short-life-cycle food has become an important part of consumer diet in people’s food consumption expenditure, this kind of product production lead time is long, the demand fluctuation is big, faces the supply and demand uncertain risk. In view of the uncertain risk of supply and demand in short-life-cycle food supply chain, this paper discusses the causes of the uncertain supply and demand, and studies the ordering and production decisions of suppliers, manufacturers and retailers in the short-life-cycle food supply chain. Further research on coordination contract of short-life-cycle food supply chain can promote the members of supply chain to share the uncertain risk of supply and demand. The results show that: (1) Under decentral-ized decision- making, the reason of supply chain maladjustment is that the demand uncertainty leads to the reduction of the retailer’s order quantity. (2) The downstream coordination contract can share the risk of retailer’s supply uncertainty and increase the order quantity, so as to improve the profit of each main body in the supply chain and realize supply chain coordination. (3) Considering the uncertain supply risk of upstream suppliers, a combination contract is designed to make each main body of the supply chain share the uncertain supply and demand risk, which can realize the supply chain coordination.