双循环背景下河南吸引FDI的影响因素探究

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Attracting FDI in Henan under the Double Cycle Pattern

摘要: 深入融合全球产业经济，引入高水平的外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment，简称FDI)，是当前新发展格局的重要战略之一。在此背景下，河南省如何利用省内资源更好的吸引FDI？对此问题的研究既是对外循环有效性的讨论，也是对政策性开放转变为制度性开放的验证。本文基于河南省1985~2021年的时间序列数据运用Eviews 10.0软件进行实证检验。结果显示：(1) 经单位根检验后，各变量一阶差分为平稳序列。(2) 误差修正模型表明，就短期而言，经济潜力、城市产业结构和劳动力成本对河南省FDI流入存在正向影响。(3) 格兰杰因果关系表明经济潜力和投资环境是河南省吸引FDI的显著因素。(4) 脉冲响应分析表明，由长期来看，河南省FDI对于各个自变量的冲击，在第20期前后趋向平稳。优化产业结构布局、挖掘经济发展潜力、完善投资制度环境、重视人力资本体系对于双循环背景下河南省吸引高质量FDI具有重要意义。

Abstract: Deeply integrating the global industrial economy and introducing a high level of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is one of the important strategies of the current new development pattern. In this context, how can Henan Province better attract FDI with its resources? The study of this problem is not only the discussion of the effectiveness of external circulation, but also the verification of the transformation of policy opening into institutional opening. This study conducts an empirical test based on the time series data of Henan Province from 1985 to 2021 with Eviews 10.0 software. The results show that: (1) According to the unit root test, the first-order difference of each variable is a stationary sequence. (2) According to the error correction model, economic potential, urban industrial structure and labor cost have positive effects on FDI inflow in Henan Province in the short term. (3) According to the Granger causality analysis, economic potential and investment environment are significant factors for attracting FDI in Henan Province. (4) Impulse response analysis shows that, in the long run, the impact of FDI on independent variables in Henan Province tends to be stable approximately in the 20th period. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the layout of industrial structure, inspire the potential of economic development, perfect the institutional construction of investment and attach importance to the human capital system for realizing high-quality FDI inflow into Henan under the dual-cycle pattern.