基于时间序列模型的我国卫生总费用预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Total Health Costs in China Based on Time Series Models

摘要: 目的：分析我国卫生总费用发展现状，对卫生总费用，个人现金卫生支出，社会卫生支出和政府卫生支出发展趋势进行预测分析，以其为制定医疗卫生政策，推进我国“医疗一体化”提供科学的参考依据。方法：选取1978年~2021年我国卫生总费用，个人现金卫生支出，社会卫生支出和政府卫生支出等数据，分别建立ARIMA模型对卫生费用发展趋势进行预测。结果：自1978年到2021年以来，我国卫生总费用呈现不断增长的趋势，其中，政府卫生支出与个人现金卫生支出的增长趋势平缓，社会卫生支出的增长趋势较快。通过ARIMA模型预测，在2022~2026年里，我国卫生总费用将继续保持稳定增长，但个人现金卫生支出，社会卫生支出和政府卫生支出之间发展存在一定差距。结论：我国卫生总费用未来几年将继续保持增长。应当合理调整个人现金卫生支出，社会卫生支出和政府卫生支出的分布比例。在以后研究中，要结合实际因素对预测模型进行优化。

Abstract: Objective: To analyze the current development status of total health expenditure in China, predict and analyze the trends of total health expenditure, personal cash health expenditure, social health expenditure, and government health expenditure, and provide scientific reference for formulating medical and health policies and promoting “medical integration” in China. Method: The total health expenditure, personal cash health expenditure, social health expenditure, and government health expenditure in China from 1978 to 2021 were selected, and ARIMA models were established to predict the development trend of health expenditure. Result: Since 1978 to 2021, the total health expenditure in China has shown a continuous growth trend. Among them, the growth trend of government health expenditure and personal cash health expenditure is flat, while the growth trend of social health expenditure is relatively fast. According to the ARIMA model, it is predicted that the total health expenditure in China will continue to maintain stable growth from 2022 to 2026. However, there is a certain gap in development between personal cash health expenditure, social health expenditure, and government health expenditure. Conclusion: The total health expenditure in China will continue to increase in the coming years. The distribution ratio of personal cash health expenditure, social health expenditure, and government health expenditure should be reasonably adjusted. In future research, it is necessary to optimize the prediction model based on practical factors.