自然气象灾害对粮食安全的影响评估——以长江沿线11省份为例

Impact Assessment of Natural Meteorological Disasters on Food Security—A Case Study of 11 Provinces along the Yangtze River

摘要: 随着气象灾害的频发，粮食产量会得到影响。因此本文以长江沿线11省份为研究区域，利用灰色关联度模型来辨析不同省份影响粮食安全的主要气象灾害和信息扩散模型来评估各省份不同气象灾害发生的概率分布，结果表明气象灾害波动性较大且具有明显的年际变化特征，90年代到21世纪初期受灾率较高，但从时间尺度上看受灾率整体处于下降趋势，粮食总产和单产整体处于上升的趋势；大部分省份的水灾、旱灾是影响粮食产量的最主要的气象灾害；各省受灾面积进行风险分析可得到旱灾和洪涝的成灾风险概率高于风雹和冷冻，且水灾的受灾风险高的区域集中在整个长江沿线区域，旱灾受灾风险高的区域主要集中在长江中下游，而风雹受灾风险概率高的区域主要集中在西部一些地形环境较差的省份，如青海省，冷冻在湖北省发生的风险概率高。

Abstract: With the frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters, food production will be affected. There-fore, this paper takes 11 provinces along the Yangtze River as the study area, and uses the gray cor-relation model to identify the main meteorological disasters affecting food security in different provinces and the information diffusion model to assess the probability distribution of the occur-rence of different meteorological disasters in each province, and the results show that the mete-orological disasters are more volatile and have obvious inter-annual change characteristics, and the disaster rate is higher from the 90’s to the early part of the 21st century, however, the time scale shows an overall downward trend in disaster rates and an overall upward trend in total food production and yields. Floods and droughts are the most important meteorological hazards af-fecting grain production in the Yangtze River Basin on a spatial scale. The areas of high probability of flood risk are concentrated along most of the entire Yangtze River. Regions with high probability of drought disaster risk are mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, whereas regions with a high probability of wind and hail damage risk are mainly con-centrated in some western provinces with poor topographic environments, such as Qinghai Prov-ince, and freezing has a high risk probability of occurring in Hubei Province.