天气预报岗位职业压力与毕业生业务心理素质需求分析

Analysis on Weather Forecaster Professional Pressure and Operational Psychological Quality Demands for Graduates

摘要: 在全社会对天气气候问题更加关切、相关技术高速发展的背景下，从预报预测业务实际出发，根据面临的工作任务与社会责任，针对实战经验欠缺，从大气科学专业毕业直接进入预报岗位工作的毕业生的实际情况，进行了预报员工作压力与职业心理素质需求分析。结果表明：1) 在多元探测资料和多种预报产品两个方面，天气预报岗位日常工作须进行8维度高维巨量信息分析处理，远超出普通认知能力，受非常有限的工作时间的限制，思考强度可迅速逼近峰值极限，并带来巨大的心理冲击。2) 在重大、关键、突发和敏感性天气过程中，预报员面临人民生命财产和国家利益的重大抉择，承受技术决策巨大的心理压力。3) 预报过程中不可避免的失误造成长期持续的挫败感，轮换值班与行政班的交替变化造成的生理节奏紊乱，其累积效应对预报员具有巨大不利影响。4) 从高强度工作与业务压力方面考虑，要求大气科学毕业生应具有坚定、果断、自信、豁达、坦荡、宽容、自我调整、积极向上的和勇于探索的心理特点，以更好地适应岗位心理需求。本研究面向日常业务工作心理压力巨大的天气预报岗位职业群体，致力于提高其心理承受与抗压能力，以充分发挥专业素养，为其在重大技术决策中更好地保障社会、群众与国家利益提供心理基础。

Abstract: Under the background of more concern about weather and climate issues and the rapid development of related technologies in the whole society, based on the actual forecasting service, and according to the task and social responsibility faced by forecasters, the demand analysis of forecasters’ work pressure and professional psychological quality was conducted. The results show that: 1) The daily work of weather forecasting posts bear the pressure of analyzing and processing huge amounts of high-dimensional information beyond ordinary cognitive ability in two aspects of multi-sources atmospheric detection data and multi-sources products of numerical weather forecast models. Within very limited working time, the thinking intensity can quickly approach the peak limit and bring about a huge psychological impact. 2) Forecasters are facing difficult choices of people’s lives, property and national interests in the process of great, key, sudden and turning weather, and are under tremendous pressure of technical decision-making. 3) Inevitable errors in the forecasting process cause long-term and sustained frustration, and the physiological rhythm disorder caused by alternating shifts and administrative shifts. Its cumulative effect has a huge negative impact on forecasters. 4) Considering the high-intensity work and operational pressure, forecasters are required to be firm, decisive, confident, open-minded, tolerant, self-adjusting, positive and exploratory. This study is aimed at the occupational group of weather forecasting positions with great psychological pressure in daily operational work, and is committed to improving their psy-chological tolerance and stress-resistant ability, so as to give full play to their professionalism and provide a psychological basis for them to better safeguard the interests of the society, the public and the state in major technical decision-making.