基于双偏振多普勒雷达的贵阳一次春季强对流天气的综合分析

Comprehensive Analysis of a Spring Severe Convective Weather in Guiyang Based on Double Polarization Doppler Radar

摘要: 本文基于双偏振多普勒雷达和多源观测数据，对2023年3月16日贵阳市一次春季强对流天气进行了多尺度综合分析，主要得出以下结论：本次强对流天气可分为暖区风暴和飑线风暴两个阶段，其中暖区风暴触发的关键因子为边界层辐合线以及特殊的地理地形，飑线风暴触发的关键因子为500 hPa高空槽及边界层辐合线；暖区风暴是降雹的主要系统，飑线风暴整体以短时强降水为主；暖区风暴的移向右偏于环境风，与引导气流方向不一致，飑线风暴的移向与引导气流基本一致；暖区风暴的南北跨度较小，飑线风暴的南北跨度较大；双偏振多普勒雷达能够较好地体现出冰雹云发展不同阶段的结构特征，低仰角较低的相关系数CC、KDP空洞、ZDR低值和ZH大值区(>55 dBz)通常预示着风暴可能或已经出现降雹，利用ZDR柱的前后变化特征、三体散射以及风暴在垂直方向上的结构特征也可以提前预判风暴是否有出现降雹的可能，从而为短临预警提供客观依据和有力支撑。

Abstract: In this paper, based on double polarization Doppler radar and multi-source observation data, mul-ti-scale comprehensive analysis was conducted on a spring severe convective weather in Guiyang on March 16, 2023. The main conclusions are: the severe convective weather can be divided into two stages: warm area storm and squall line storm, the key factors triggered the warm area storm area are the boundary layer convergence line and the special geographical terrain, the key factors trig-gered the squall line storm are 500 hPa upper air trough and boundary layer convergence line; the warm area storm is the main system of hail suppression, the squall line storm is dominated by short-term heavy precipitation; the warm area storm shifts to the right to the ambient wind, which does not consistent with the guiding air flow direction, the movement of the squall line storm is generally consistent with the guiding air flow; the north-south span of the warm area storm is smaller, the north-south span of the squall line storm is relatively large; double polarization Dop-pler radar can better reflect the structural characteristics of different stages of hail storm cloud development, the smaller correlation coefficient of low elevation CC, KDP cavity, smaller ZDR and ZH large areas (>55 dBz) usually indicate that a storm may or has experienced hail, using the pre-posterior variation characteristics of the ZDR column, three-body scattering and V-type gap and the structural characteristics of the storm in the vertical direction can also predict whether the hail will occur, so as to provide objective basis and strong support for short early warning.