菏泽市一次暴雨天气过程气候评价

Climate Assessment of a Rainstorm Weather Process in Heze City

摘要: 本文利用高空图、地面图、自动气象站观测资料、雷达资料、卫星云图资料、NCEP再分析资料，GRAPES、NCEP、上海中尺度、EC细网格等数值预报模式产品资料，对2021年9月18~19日菏泽市出现的一次区域暴雨过程进行了诊断、分析和气候评价。结果表明：受高空槽和低空急流共同影响，9月18日到19日菏泽市自西向东出现暴雨局地大暴雨天气。9月18~19日暴雨过程中，500 hPa菏泽市处在副高边缘、高空槽东移、850 hPa低涡切变线东移北抬，地面倒槽发展成气旋，受气旋影响，出现大风天气，气旋中心穿过山东。天气雷达回波图能准确地反映天气系统的移动、发展情况，数值预报产品对强降水的预报具有一定的指导作用。这次暴雨过程造成了内涝灾害，就降水量和暴雨影响范围而言，降水范围大，受前期几次强降水的影响已造成多条内河河流超过警戒水位，对农业生产和多项基础设施造成了严重的影响。

Abstract: In this paper, a regional rainstorm process that occurred in Heze City from September 18 to 19, 2021 is diagnosed, analyzed and evaluated by using altitude map, ground map, automatic weather station observation data, radar data, satellite cloud image data, NCEP reanalysis data, GRAPES, NCEP, Shanghai mesoscale, EC fine grid and other numerical prediction model product data. The results show that from September 18 to 19, rainstorm local heavy rainstorm weather occurred in Heze from west to east due to the influence of the high empty trough and the lower jet. During the rainstorm on September 18~19, the 500 hPa Heze City was located at the edge of the subtropical high, the upper trough moved east and the 850hPa low vortex shear line moved east and north, and the surface trough developed into a cyclone. Under the influence of the cyclone, strong winds occurred, and the center of the cyclone passed through Shandong Province. The weather radar echo map can accurately reflect the movement and development of weather systems, and numerical forecasting products have a certain guiding role in predicting heavy precipitation. This rainstorm process caused water-logging disaster. In terms of precipitation and the impact range of rainstorm, the precipitation range is large. Affected by several heavy rains in the early stage, several inland rivers have exceeded the warning water level, which has caused a serious impact on agricultural production and many infrastructures.