考虑返工的项目进度缓冲管理框架研究

Research on Buffer Management Framework for Project Schedule Control in Rework Scenarios

摘要: 作为项目进度延期的重要原因之一，返工一直以来都是项目管理中的难点。尽管关键链项目管理方法为应对项目进度风险提供了有力的工具，但它假设活动的持续时间是互相独立的，在返工情境下并不适用。此外，活动因潜在返工而拥有的特征也未在进度管理中被利用。因此，本文试图提出一个返工情境下的缓冲管理框架，以填补这块空白。具体来说，本文引入设计结构矩阵来描述活动之间的依赖关系，以更精确地确定缓冲大小；此外，本文利用活动因返工而拥有的敏感性指标对缓冲进行分配，以将管理者有限的注意力集中在最关键的活动上。最终，模拟结果表明，本文提出的缓冲管理框架可以提供更可靠的项目工期估计并获得更高的项目按时完工率。

Abstract: As a major cause of the prolonged project process, rework has long been a challenge in project management. Although critical chain project management provides a powerful tool for dealing with schedule risks, it assumes activities’ durations are independent of each other, which is inappropriate in rework situations. Besides, activities’ features that arising from potential rework are not utilized in schedule management. Hence, this paper tries to propose a buffer management framework in rework scenarios to fill the gap. Specifically, a design structure matrix is introduced to depict activities’ dependencies, thus the buffer size can be determined more precisely. Meanwhile, a sensitivity indicator related to rework is applied to allocate buffer, thus managers’ attention can be focused on the most critical activities. Finally, the simulation result demonstrates that the proposed framework in this paper can provide a more reliable estimate of the project duration and obtain a higher on-time completion rate.