基于多重均衡模型的农民合作社助力乡村振兴效果研究

Research on the Effect of Rural Revitalization Assisted by Farmers Cooperatives Based on Multiple Equilibrium Models

摘要: 巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、提升农户生活质量是实现乡村振兴的必然要求。本文通过构建多重均衡模型，分析农民合作社对于防止农户因灾返贫的作用，以巩固脱贫攻坚成果。同时，对比加入农民合作社前后农户的终身期望效用，探讨加入农民合作社能否提高农户效用，以改善农户生活质量。此外，本文还对比了农民合作社、农业保险以及“农民合作社 农业保险”三种模式，探讨何种模式更有利于助力乡村振兴。结果表明：农民合作社是助力乡村振兴的重要手段，能够有效防止低收入农户因灾返贫，并提升农户的效用水平；在三种模式的对比中，发现对于较低资本水平农户而言，农民合作社的风险管理能力优于农业保险，但对于较高资本水平农户则相反；对于所有农户而言，农民合作社对农户效用的促进效果均优于农业保险；“农民合作社 农业保险”模式结合了农民合作社和农业保险的优势，能够实现最佳的风险管理能力和促进农户效用增加的效果。

Abstract: Consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and improving the quality of life of farmers are inevitable requirements for achieving rural revitalization. This article analyzes the role of farmer cooperatives in preventing farmers from returning to poverty due to disasters by constructing a multiple equilibrium model, in order to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation. At the same time, comparing the lifetime expected utility of farmers before and after joining the farmer cooperative, exploring whether joining the farmer cooperative can improve the utility of farmers and improve their quality of life. In addition, this article also compares three models: farmer cooperatives, agricultural insurance, and “farmer cooperatives agricultural insurance” to explore which model is more conducive to promoting rural revitalization. The results indicate that farmer cooperatives are an important means of promoting rural revitalization, which can effectively prevent low-income farmers from returning to poverty due to disasters and improve the utility level of farmers; In the comparison of the three models, it was found that for farmers with lower capital levels, the risk management ability of farmer cooperatives is better than that of agricultural insurance, but the opposite is true for farmers with higher capital levels; For all farmers, the promotion effect of farmer cooperatives on their utility is better than that of agricultural insurance; The model of “farmer cooperatives agricultural insurance” combines the advantages of farmer cooperatives and agricultural insurance, which can achieve the best risk management ability and promote the effect of increasing the utility of farmers.