甘肃省人口老龄化时空演变特征研究

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Population Aging in Gansu Province

摘要: 本文以甘肃省14州市为研究对象，选取2009到2019年人口统计数据，分别计算甘肃省14州市的人口老龄化系数、年均增长率，老年人口密度。分析了甘肃省人口老龄化时空格局演变特征及人口老龄化区域差异的影响因子。研究结果表明：1) 2009~2019年，甘肃省人口老龄化随着时间推移不断加深。2019年，甘肃省已进入老年型中后期阶段，社会养老负担大；2) 甘肃省人口老龄化空间分布不均，总体上都呈现出“中部高四周低”的分布特征；3) 人口老龄化的时空格局演变受人口自然增长率、人均GDP、城市化率、老年人口密度的显著影响。

Abstract: This paper takes 14 cities and towns in Gansu Province as the research object, selects the demographic data from 2009 to 2019, and calculates the coefficient of population aging, the average annual growth rate, and the density of elderly population in 14 cities and towns in Gansu Province, respectively. The characteristics of the evolution of the spatio-temporal pattern of population aging in Gansu Province and the influencing factors of regional differences in population aging are analyzed. The results of the study show that: 1) From 2009 to 2019, the population aging in Gansu Province has been deepening over time, and in 2019, Gansu Province has entered the middle and late stages of old age, with a large burden of social old-age pension; 2) The spatial distribution of population aging in Gansu Province is uneven, and in general, the distribution of “high in the middle and low around” is shown; 3) The spatial and temporal pattern of population aging is significantly affected by the natural population growth rate, per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and elderly population density.