基于寿命周期的报废汽车回收潜力研究

Research on the Recycling Potential of End-of-Life Vehicles Based on Life Cycle

摘要: 汽车回收行业是加快构建我国无废城市的建立和循环经济发展的重要行业之一。而报废汽车回收潜力的研究对汽车回收行业的可持续发展具有重要意义。不同的汽车性能存在较大的差异，使得汽车的寿命不尽相同，进而决定着不同时期的汽车报废数量，以此对报废汽车回收潜力研究影响巨大。本文采用logistic函数对我国2023~2030年汽车保有量进行预测，引入寿命函数对我国汽车报废量进行预测，进而对我国报废汽车进行回收潜力评估。研究结果表明，相比于2022年，2030年我国汽车保有量将增长24%左右，其中汽车报废量将由2023年的120.38万辆增长到6799.75万辆。2030年报废汽车在最长寿命周期下废钢铁，废塑料，废有色金属，废橡胶和废玻璃的回收量比最短寿命周期下的回收量减少约50%。可见，不同的寿命周期下，报废汽车回收潜力有着显著差异。

Abstract: Automobile recycling industry is one of the important industries to speed up the establishment of non-waste cities in China and the development of recycling economy. The research on the recycling potential of end-of-life vehicles is of great significance to the sustainable development of the automobile recycling industry. There are great differences in the performance of different vehicles, which makes the life of vehicles different, and then determines the number of end-of-life vehicles in different periods, which has a great impact on the research of the recycling potential of end-of-life vehicles. In this paper, the logistic function is used to predict the vehicle ownership in China from 2023 to 2030, and the life function is introduced to predict the amount of end-of-life vehicles in China, and then the recycling potential of end-of-life vehicles in China is evaluated. The research results show that compared with 2022, China’s car ownership will increase by about 24% in 2030, of which the amount of car scrap will increase from 1.2038 million in 2023 to 67.9975 million. The amount of scrap steel, scrap plastics, scrap non-ferrous metals, scrap rubber and scrap glass recycled under the longest life cycle is about 50% less than the amount recycled under the shortest life cycle. It can be seen that there are significant differences in the recycling potential of end-of-life vehicles under different life cycles.