我国人口老龄化的非参数统计分析

Variation Analysis of the Population Aging in China Based on Nonparametric Statistics

摘要: 人口老龄化已成为全国一个极为严峻的社会问题，区域经济发展的不平衡导致人口老龄化存在差异。基于全国2003~2017年31个省的老年人口相关数据，利用非参数假设检验方法，分别考查了人口老龄化水平在东、中、西部地区及各地区省际间的空间差异。具体来说，首先利用Kruscal-Wallis方法分析得出：东、中、西部地区的人口老龄化差异呈现03~08年较为显著，09~12年逐渐减弱，13~17年又慢慢提高的趋势，18~21年趋于稳定。其次将Friedman检验用以探索人口老龄化水平在各地区省际间也存在显著差异，得出东部地区人口老龄化程度辽宁省最为严重，中部地区湖南、安徽和湖北省较重，山西省最轻，西部地区重庆市最重，西藏最轻。最后基于Wilcoxon秩和方法发现全国女性人口老龄化程度显著高于男性人口老龄化程度。

Abstract: Currently, the population aging has become an extremely serious social problem in China and the imbalance of regional economic development leads to the difference of population aging. Based on the older coefficient data of 31 provinces in China, this paper firstly focuses on the spatial variation of the population aging in the eastern, middle and western regions and among their provinces in each region. Specifically, the Kruscal-Wallis method is used to analyze that the difference of population aging in the eastern, central and western regions is more significant in 03-08 years, gradually weakens in 09-12 years, slowly increases in 13-17 years, and tends to be stable in 18-21 years. Secondly, the Friedman test is used to explore that there are significant differences in the level of population aging among different regions and provinces, and it is concluded that the degree of population aging is the most serious in Liaoning Province in the eastern region, the heavier in Hunan, Anhui and Hubei provinces in the central region, the lightest in Shanxi Province, the heaviest in Chongqing Municipality in the western region, and the lightest in Xizang. Finally, based on the Wilcoxon rank-sum method, it is found that the aging degree of the female population is significantly higher than that of the male population.