基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的中国医疗卫生资源未来发展趋势分析

Analysis of Future Development Trends of Medical and Health Resources in China Based on GM(1,1) Grey Prediction Model

摘要: 目的：分析2012~2021年我国医疗卫生资源现状，预测2022~2026年我国医疗卫生资源的变化趋势。方法：基于2012~2021年卫生资源相关数据构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型，对我国2022~2026年医疗床位资源、专业人员资源、医疗卫生机构等医疗卫生资源配置进行预测分析。结果：2022~2026年医疗卫生资源总体呈增长趋势，到2026年医疗机构床位数量增长至1254.95万张，年均增长率为7.35%，并且每千人口医疗卫生机构床位在2026年达到8.67，年均增长率为6.67%；卫生技术人员、执业医师和注册护士的数量分别到达1497.38万人、482.12万人和734.74万人；2026年医疗卫生机构的总数增加到106.48万个，年均增长率为0.71%，其中医院的数量增加至4.80万个，基层医疗卫生机构增加至101.68万个。结论：医疗机构床位配置进一步提升、医疗卫生人员仍不足、医疗机构数量发展缓慢、亟需采取有效措施合理配置卫生资源，精准对接人民差异化、多层次的健康需求。

Abstract: Objective: To analyze the current situation of medical and health resources in China from 2012 to 2021, and predict the trend of changes in medical and health resources in China from 2022 to 2026. Method: Based on health resource related data from 2012 to 2021, a grey GM(1,1) prediction model was constructed to predict and analyze the allocation of medical and health resources in China from 2022 to 2026, including medical bed resources, professional personnel resources, and medical institutions. The overall trend of medical and health resources from 2022 to 2026 was an increase, with the number of beds in medical institutions increasing to 12.5495 million by 2026, with an average annual growth rate of 7.35%. In addition, the number of beds in medical and health institutions per thousand population reached 8.67 in 2026, with an average annual growth rate of 6.67%; the number of health technicians, practicing physicians, and registered nurses reached 14.9738 million, 4.8212 million, and 7.3474 million, respectively; in 2026, the total number of medical and health institutions increased to 1.0648 million, with an average annual growth rate of 0.71%. Among them, the number of hospitals increased to 48,000, and the number of primary medical and health institutions increased to 1.0168 million. Conclusion: The allocation of beds in medical institutions has been further improved, there is still a shortage of medical and health personnel, the number of medical institutions is developing slowly, and effective measures are urgently needed to reasonably allocate health resources and accurately connect with the differentiated and multi-level health needs of the people.