“认房不认贷”政策对房地产企业股价的影响——基于事件研究法

The Influence of the Policy of “Recognize the House But Not the Loan” on the Stock Price of Real Estate Enterprises—Based on the Event Study Method

摘要: “认房不认贷”政策的出台和实施，体现了多年来中国房地产市场供求关系的变化，以及政策层面适时调整优化的结果。本文运用事件研究法计算事件期内的异常收益，实证研究“认房不认贷”政策的实施对中国房地产企业股价的影响。研究发现：“认房不认贷”政策的实施对市场来说具有信息含量，反应比较明显；在各地逐步实施该政策后，房地产企业股价并没有上涨，反而下降；对房地产企业股价变动产生显著地抑制作用，表明市场是非常关注国家和地方的宏观调控行为的；但是市场会提前做出反应，使得政策效果未达到预期。最后，根据实证研究结果提出合理化建议，旨在促进房地产行业的健康发展，提高人民群众幸福感。

Abstract: The introduction and implementation of the policy of “recognizing the house but not the loan” reflects the changes in the supply and demand relationship of China’s real estate market over the years, as well as the results of timely adjustment and optimization at the policy level. This paper uses the event study method to calculate the abnormal returns during the event period, and empirically studies the impact of the implementation of the policy of “Recognize the house but not the loan “on the stock price of China’s real estate enterprises. Research has found that the implementation of the policy of “Recognize the house but not the loan” has information content for the market, and the reaction is relatively obvious; After the gradual implementation of this policy in various regions, the stock prices of real estate enterprises did not rise, but fell; The significant inhibitory effect on the stock price fluctuations of real estate enterprises indicates that the market is very concerned about the macroeconomic regulation behavior of the country and local governments; But the market will react early, causing the policy effect to not meet expectations. Finally, based on the empirical research results, reasonable suggestions are put forward to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry and improve people’s happiness.