基于多元线性回归模型的黄骅港货物吞吐量的预测研究

Research on the Prediction of Cargo Throughput of Huanghua Port Based on Multiple Linear Regression Model

摘要: 黄骅港口位于环渤海经济圈中部，在北方港口中具有重要战略地位。深入探讨影响黄骅港货物处理能力的各种因素，并以此为基础进行预测，对于优化黄骅港口的未来发展具有重要意义。此外，研究货物吞吐量的预测有利于确定港口的未来走向、投资规模、基础设施建设等，对黄骅港口的合理布局、发展策略、泊位选址等有着深远意义。本文结合了黄骅港的现状和存在的一些问题，构建了黄骅港吞吐量影响因素指标体系，得出了黄骅港吞吐量的重要影响因素。基于这些重要影响因素，建立了多元线性回归模型，对黄骅港货物吞吐量进行预测研究。

Abstract: Huanghua Port is located in the middle of the Bohai Economic Circle and has an important strategic position among the northern ports. Studying the influencing factors of cargo throughput of Huanghua Port and making predictions on this basis will help to better plan and construct Huanghua Port, determine the future direction, investment scale and infrastructure construction of Huanghua Port, and have far-reaching significance for the reasonable layout, development strategy and berth location selection of Huanghua Port. Combined with the current situation and some existing problems of Huanghua Port, this paper constructs an index system of influencing factors of Huanghua Port throughput, and obtains the important influencing factors of Huanghua Port throughput. Based on these important influencing factors, a multiple linear regression model was established to predict the cargo throughput of Huanghua Port.