基于机器学习的天猫双十一销售预测

Machine Learning-Based Sales Prediction for Tmall Double Eleven

摘要: 近年来电子商务的发展状况呈现出良好的态势，而各个电商平台也在举行不同的促销活动来提升销量，天猫的双十一购物节以其优惠力度以及折扣力度比较大而在众多的促销活动中脱颖而出。而如何运用已有的销售额数据来更好地谋求更大的利润，是一个极为重要的问题。文章在基于2009年~2023年天猫双十一销售额数据的基础之上，利用线性回归模型以及时间序列模型对2024年天猫双十一的销售额进行预测，预测结果显示，线性回归模型以及时间序列模型的2024年天猫双十一的销售额预测结果分别是7536.4亿元、6601.7亿元，虽然模型的精度在一定的程度上受到了很大的影响，但天猫双十一的销售额仍然呈现出上升的趋势。对2024年天猫双十一的销售额进行预测，一个方面为有关销售额研究提供了案例样本；另一方面也有助于商家做出科学的决策，从而能够提高商家的利润以及进行合理的进货。

Abstract: In recent years, the development of e-commerce has shown a positive trend, and various e-commerce platforms are organizing different promotional activities to boost sales. Tmall’s Double Eleven Shopping Festival stands out among numerous promotional events due to its significant discounts and promotional efforts. The crucial question is how to better utilize existing sales data to seek greater profits. This article, based on Tmall’s Double Eleven sales data from 2009 to 2023, employs linear regression models and time series models to predict the sales for the year 2024. The forecast results indicate that the sales predictions for Tmall’s Double Eleven in 2024 are 3294.2 billion yuan and 3211.70 billion yuan, respectively, using the linear regression and time series models. Although the accuracy of the models is influenced to a certain extent, the sales for Tmall’s Double Eleven still show an upward trend. Predicting the sales for Tmall’s Double Eleven in 2024 not only provides a case sample for sales research but also aids businesses in making informed decisions, thereby improving profitability and rational inventory management.