基于MIKE11模型的平原城市超标准洪水调度方案研究

A Study of Super-Standard Flood Scheduling Scheme for Plains Cities Based on MIKE11 Model

摘要: 由于全球气候变暖和更频繁的极端降水事件，未来几年平原城市超标准洪水灾害的发生频率和强度预计将会继续增加。聊城市地处黄河下游、鲁西平原，是山东省历史上遭受洪涝灾害最多、最重的地区之一。面对可能发生的超标准洪水灾害，本文建立MIKE11河网水动力模型对其进行洪涝模拟，提前制定超标准洪水调度方案，科学利用工程与非工程工程措施在市域范围内形成联合调度模式，保障城市的防洪安全。结果表明，调度方案能够满足聊城市防御目标和保护对象的要求。超标准洪水三道防线和中心城区独立防洪圈建成后，即使遭遇超标准洪水，也可有效保护聊城市及中心城区的防洪安全。同时，调度方案考虑到聊城市未来规划建设，既解决了中心城区现状河道数量较少，调蓄能力不足问题，又布置了闸泵工程设计河道排涝出路，进一步提升了聊城市的防洪排涝能力。本文的研究结果也为我国同类平原城市洪涝调控提供了新的理论依据，具有参考意义。

Abstract: Due to global warming and more frequent extreme precipitation events, the frequency and intensity of flood disasters in plain cities are expected to continue to increase in the next few years. Liaocheng City is located in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Luxi Plain, and it is one of the areas that suffered the most and heaviest floods in the history of Shandong Province. In the face of the possible su-per-standard flood disaster, this paper establishes a hydrodynamic model of MIKE11 river network to simulate the flood, formulates the super-standard flood dispatching scheme in advance, and scientifically uses engineering and non-engineering measures to form a joint dispatching mode within the city to ensure the flood control safety of the city. The results show that the dispatching scheme can meet the require-ments of Liaocheng’s defense targets and protected objects. After the completion of the three lines of de-fense against over-standard flood and the independent flood control circle in the central city, the flood control safety can be effectively protected even if it encounters over-standard flood. At the same time, con-sidering the future planning and construction of Liaocheng City, the dispatching scheme not only solves the problems that the number of rivers in the central city is small and the storage capacity is insufficient, but also arranges the sluice pump project to design the drainage outlet of rivers, further improving the flood control and drainage capacity. The research results of this paper also provide a new theoretical basis for flood control in similar plain cities in China, which has reference significance.