考虑消落带碳排放的丹江口水库生态调度研究

Ecological Operation of Danjiangkou Reservoir Considering Drawdown Area Carbon Emissions

摘要: 在“双碳”目标下，水库消落带的碳排放导致碳汇属性受到争议。现有生态调度研究主要聚焦于河流生态需求，未将消落带碳排放纳入考虑，生态调度目标有待完善。本论文以丹江口水库与汉江中下游为研究对象，开展消落带碳排放模拟和水库生态调度模型构建两个方面研究。提出了基于消落带面积和碳排放强度季节差异的碳排放量计算方法，建立了考虑消落带碳排放的多目标优化调度模型，求解得到帕累托解集并推求优化调度图，根据调度目标之间的相关性明确了其协同竞争关系。研究结果表明：丹江口水库消落带面积与水位之间的相关性强，消落带落干区和退水区全年作为碳源，淹水区夏季作为碳源，冬季作为碳汇，年内的碳源效应和碳汇效应基本抵消。优化调度方案能够兼顾生态效益与社会经济效益，年均消落带碳排放量降低3.19%。年均碳排放量与年均发电量、鱼卵孵化适宜河段长度、营养状态破坏率呈竞争关系，与年均供水量、浮游植物密度呈协同关系，与水文变异度相关性较弱。本论文可丰富水库生态调度的内涵。

Abstract: Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the carbon emissions from the drawdown area had led to controversy over the carbon sink attributes of the reservoir. Existing research mainly focused on river ecological requirements, ignoring the drawdown area carbon emissions, and ecological operation objectives were required to be expanded. With the middle and lower reaches of the Han River and the Danjiangkou Reservoir as the study area, this paper focused on the reservoir ecological objective simula-tion and ecological operation. The carbon emissions were calculated by considering the area fluctuations and the carbon emission intensity. The multi-objective optimization operation model considering the drawdown area carbon emissions and the downstream ecology was established, and the Pareto solution set and the preferred operation rule curves were obtained. The correlations between the operation objec-tives were clarified. The research results indicated that the area of the drawdown area showed a signifi-cant correlation with the water level. The drawdown area of the Danjiangkou Reservoir acted as a carbon source throughout the year, and the source-sink effects in the flooded area were offset. The preferred op-eration rule curves balanced the socioeconomic and ecological benefits, the annual average carbon emis-sions decreased by 3.19%. The annual average carbon emissions were significantly negatively correlated with the annual average hydropower generation, the suitable river length for fish spawning, and the devi-ation rate of the trophic level index, positively correlated with the annual average water supply and phy-toplankton density, weakly correlated with the deviation of variability range. This paper enriched the connotations of reservoir ecological operation.