1990~2021年马鬃山气温变化特征分析

Characterization of Temperature Change in the Mazong Mountains from 1990 to 2021

摘要: 全球变暖升温趋势明显，气温和降水是气候变化最基本、最直接的要素，直接影响了人类的生产生活，本文基于1990~2021年马鬃山气象站点逐日观测数据，采用趋势分析、变异系数、距平、Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析了马鬃山地区气温、最高气温、最低气温年际变化规律。研究结果表明：1) 1990~2021年马鬃山地区气温与最高气温呈显著增加趋势，最低气温呈不显著减少趋势。马鬃山地区近30年来变化幅度较为波动，呈现出一个持续增温的趋势。2) 21世纪00年代以后，气温呈现增温趋势，在全球气候变暖的背景下，马鬃山地区气温年际变化幅度相对较大，该地区受气候变化影响较为明显。3) 21世纪受气候变暖影响，气温呈现明显的增温趋势，其中21世纪10年代受气候变暖影响相对较大。但最低气温变化趋势相反，21世纪00年代和21世纪10年代最低气温由相对偏高期转为相对偏低期，并在21世纪10年代降温趋势减弱。

Abstract: The global warming and heating trend is obvious, temperature and precipitation are the most basic and direct elements of climate change, which directly affect human production and life. Based on the daily observation data of the meteorological stations in the Mazong Mountains from 1990 to 2021, this paper analyzes the inter-annual air temperature, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature of the Mazong Mountains area by using the trend analysis, the coefficient of variation, the distance level, and the Mann-Kendall test. The results of the study showed that The results of the study show that: 1) from 1990 to 2021, the air temperature and maximum air temperature in the Mazong region showed a significant increasing trend, and the minimum air temperature showed a non-significant decreasing trend. The change amplitude of the Mazong Mountain region in the past 30 years is more fluctuating, showing a continuous warming trend. 2) In the 2000s later, the temperature shows a warming trend, in the context of global warming, the Mazong region temperature inter-annual changes in the magnitude of the relatively large, the region by the impact of climate change is more pronounced. 3) The 21st century was affected by climate warming, and the temperature showed a clear warming trend, in which the 21st century decade was relatively more affected by climate warming. However, the trend of minimum temperature change is opposite, with the minimum temperature in the 2000s and 2010s turning from a relatively high period to a relatively low period, and the cooling trend weakening in the 2010s.