企业应收账款回款时间预测与应用

Prediction and Application of Enterprise Accounts Receivable Repayment Time

摘要: 选取某企业2020~2023年的应收账款真实数据为样本，针对不同类型的客户，分别建立基于客户个体习惯的预测模型、回归预测模型以及蒙特卡洛模拟预测模型，以预测其回款时间。预测结果表明，总体预测效果较好，更有部分月份预测误差低于1%。这些预测模型有助于企业更好地管理现金流、降低风险、进行财务规划，还为企业财务规划、战略决策和市场定位提供有力支持。因此，将本研究预测模型应用于企业财务管理具有重要的实践意义。

Abstract: The real data of accounts receivable of an enterprise from 2020 to 2023 are selected as samples. For different types of customers, the prediction model, regression prediction model and Monte Carlo simulation prediction model based on customers’ individual habits are established respectively to predict their repayment time. The prediction results show that the overall prediction effect is better, and the prediction error of some months is less than 1 %. These prediction models help enterprises to better manage cash flow, reduce risks, carry out financial planning, and provide strong support for corporate financial planning, strategic decision-making and market positioning. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to apply the prediction model of this study to enterprise financial management.