我国房地产业新发展对系统性金融风险贡献分析——以2023年8月为例

Analysis on the Contribution of the New Development of China’s Real Estate Industry to Systemic Financial Risks—Taking August 2023 as an Example

摘要: 房地产行业作为国民经济的支柱产业之一，是一个关系国计民生和社会稳定的重要行业，对推动国民经济的快速发展、改善居民居住条件、加快城市化建设等均发挥了重要作用。房地产业作为我国经济发展的重要一极，在发展过程中形成了(1) 长产业链相关性、(2) 资金密集度高、(3) 与金融机构联系紧密、(4) 政策性强、(5) 流动性差、(6) 大众心理需求导向性强等特点，因此房地产业极易对金融环境造成冲击。通过对当下房地产相关产业现状进行分析，阐明研究时间段内房地产对我国系统性金融风险的影响能够产生系统性金融风险，最后提出建议：合理控制我国资本的流向、利用我国优势缓解市场非理性、不断更新银行金融业的管理措施和匹配购房供需。

Abstract: As one of the pillar industries of the national economy, the real estate industry is an important industry related to the national economy, people’s livelihood and social stability, which has played an important role in promoting the rapid development of the national economy, improving residents’ living conditions and accelerating urbanization. As an important pole of China’s economic development, the real estate industry has formed the characteristics of (1) long-term industrial chain correlation, (2) high capital density, (3) close contact with financial institutions, (4) strong policy, (5) poor liquidity and (6) strong guidance of public psychological needs, so the real estate industry is easy to impact the financial environment. By analyzing the current situation of real estate-related industries, this paper expounds that the impact of real estate on China’s systemic financial risks can produce systemic financial risks during the research period, and finally puts forward some suggestions: reasonably controlling the flow of capital in China, using China’s advantages to alleviate market irrationality, constantly updating the management measures of banking and financial industry and matching the supply and demand of housing.