基于系统动力学的预制构件配送成本影响因素研究

Research on Factors Influencing Precast Concrete Component Transportation Costs Based on System Dynamics

摘要: 近年来，我国大力推广装配式建筑，预制构件需求旺盛，然而成本居高不下。为探索预制构件配送成本影响因素，降低工厂配送成本，研究将预制构件配送成本的构成归纳为车辆成本、运输成本、时间成本及货损成本四个方面，运用系统动力学理论和方法，阐述整个系统以及各内部子系统之间的因果反馈机制，分别绘制出四个子系统的因果关系图，构建整体系统动力学模型；并基于预制构件工厂配送实例，从配送车辆配置和配送时间安排两个角度，将车型、车辆装载率、车辆数量、时间窗间隔以及发车时间作为配送成本量化指标，根据输入数据和所编写方程进行多情景仿真分析，得出降低预制构件配送成本的重点管理因素并提出相应措施，为预制构件工厂提供配送成本优化策略。

Abstract: Recently, prefabricated buildings have been vigorously promoted, and the demand for precast concrete (PC) components is strong while costs remain high. To explore the factors influencing the transportation costs of PC components, this study categorizes the composition of PC component transportation costs into four aspects: vehicle costs, transportation costs, time costs, and damage costs. By using system dynamics theory and methods, we elucidate the causal feedback mechanisms within the entire system and between internal subsystems, draw causal diagrams for the four subsystems, and construct an overall system dynamics model. Based on a PC plant, we analyze transportation costs from the perspectives of vehicle configuration and delivery scheduling, using vehicle type, vehicle load factor, number of vehicles, time window interval, and departure time as quantitative indicators of transportation costs. Through multi-scenario simulation analysis based on input data and formulated equations, key management factors for reducing prefabricated component delivery costs are identified and corresponding measures are proposed. Finally, strategies for optimizing transportation costs for PC plants are provided.