博州棉花苗期霜冻灾害评估与风险区划

Frost Disaster Assessment and Risk Zoning of Cotton Seedling in Bozhou

摘要: 以博尔塔拉蒙古自治州(以下简称博州)棉区为研究对象，利用1981~2020年2个国家站气象数据、1991年至2020年棉花种植面积资料、棉花生育期观测资料、霜冻灾情及2016~2022年研究区37个区域站气象数据，计算棉花苗期霜冻灾害危险性指数、暴露度和脆弱性指数，构建了霜冻灾害风险评估综合模型。结果表明：1) 棉花苗期霜冻发生日数的分布基本符合轻度多、中度少、重度最少的规律；2) 霜冻发生范围呈下降趋势，轻度霜冻发生频率普遍较高，平均发生日数和发生频率最高区域在博乐市北部和博乐市西南部、精河县南部；3) 棉花苗期霜冻低风险区域主要集中在博乐市周边及精河县北部地区。

Abstract: Taking the cotton area of Bortala Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred to as Bozhou) as the research object, using the meteorological data of two national stations from 1981 to 2020, the data of cotton planting area from 1991 to 2020, the observation data of cotton growth period, the frost disaster and the meteorological data of 37 regional stations in the study area from 2016 to 2022, the risk index, exposure and vulnerability index of frost disaster in cotton seedling stage were calculated, and a comprehensive model of frost disaster risk assessment was constructed. The results showed that: 1) the distribution of frost days in cotton seedling stage was basically in accordance with the rule of mildly more, moderately less and severely least; 2) The occurrence range of frost showed a downward trend, and the frequency of mild frost was generally high. The highest average occurrence days and frequency were in the north of Bole City, the southwest of Bole City and the south of Jinghe County. 3) The low risk area of cotton seedling frost is mainly concentrated in the surrounding area of Bole City and the northern area of Jinghe County.