基于多源数据的城市时空加权人口活力探测及其影响因子分析

Urban Spatio-Temporal Weighted Population Vitality Detection and Its Influencing Factor Analysis Based on Multi-Source Data

摘要: 针对城市活力研究缺乏考虑时空动态变化结合特征及影响人口活力的影响因子的MAUP问题的现状，选取快速城市化的东莞市为研究区，本文基于多源空间数据构建时空加权人口活力指数，分析东莞市2021年人口活力时空格局特征，并利用地理探测器模型探究15个自然–人文因子对人口活力强度的影响。研究表明：时空加权人口活力指数方法相比热力平均值方法可以探测出更多的人口活力热点；影响因子均具有尺度敏感性，其中在大于500 m尺度时，植被覆盖度、路网整合度和夜间灯光亮度等因子对于尺度变化更为敏感；在500 m尺度以下时，影响人口活力分布的三个主导因子为POI密度、功能混合度以及离公交站的距离；社会经济活动强度越高、土地利用的混合度越低、交通可达性与流通性越大、土地利用类型较少且不单一、距离公共服务设施越近的区域人口活力越大。

Abstract: In view of the lack of consideration of the MAUP problem of the combination characteristics of spatio-temporal dynamic changes and the influencing factors affecting population vitality, Dongguan City with rapid urbanization was selected as the research area. Based on multi-source spatial data, this paper constructed a spatio-temporal weighted population vitality index to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern characteristics of population vitality in Dongguan City in 2021. The effects of 15 natural and cultural factors on population vitality were explored by using a geographic detector model. The results show that the spatio-temporal weighted population vitality index method can detect more population vitality hotspots than the thermal mean method. The influencing factors were sensitive to scale change, and vegetation coverage, road network integration and night light intensity were more sensitive to scale change when the scale was more than 500m. Below 500m scale, POI density, functional mixing degree and distance from bus station are the three leading factors affecting population vitality distribution. The higher the intensity of social and economic activities, the lower the mixing degree of land use, the greater the accessibility and circulation of transportation, the less land use type but not single, and the closer to public service facilities, the greater the population vitality.