基于灰色–马尔科夫模型的燃料电池企业自由现金流预测

The Prediction of Free Cash Flow for Fuel Cell Enterprises is Based on the Grey-Markov Model

摘要: 企业价值评估在资本市场逐步地完善中愈发重要，自由现金流折现模型也被普遍运用，现金流预测是运用自由现金流折现模型评估企业价值中的重要一环，现金流预测的准确性决定了企业估值的准确性。针对当前燃料电池企业发展正处于起步阶段，具备“小样本，贫信息”的特征，文章将灰色预测与马尔科夫链结合来预测企业自由现金流，与传统的预测方法相比，更符合燃料电池企业动态发展的情况。结果也表明，该模型在预测企业自由现金流的精准度方面也有所提高。

Abstract: Enterprise value assessment is becoming more and more important in the gradual improvement of the capital market, and the discounted free cash flow model is also widely used. Cash flow prediction is an important part of using the discounted free cash flow model to evaluate enterprise value. The accuracy of cash flow prediction determines the accuracy of enterprise valuation. Considering that the development of fuel cell enterprises is in the initial stage and has the characteristics of “small sample and poor information”, this paper combines grey forecasting with Markov chain to forecast the free cash flow of enterprises, which is more in line with the dynamic development of fuel cell enterprises compared with the traditional forecasting methods. The results also show that the model is more accurate in predicting the free cash flow of enterprises.