上海市失能老人医养结合人口预测及对策建议

Population Forecast and Countermeasures of Combining Medical Care with Nursing for the Disabled Elderly in Shanghai

摘要: 随着我国人口老龄化和高龄化程度的不断加深，医疗技术的进步，使我国的主要疾病谱发生了明显的改变，心血管疾病、恶性肿瘤等慢性疾病患病率上升，与人口老龄化相关的残疾和障碍的发生率增加，失能老人将会面临个人生活无法自理的困难，我国失能老人的基数巨大，比例攀升。本文通过ARIMA模型根据上海市1995~2019年的数据进行预测，探究失能老人的预测数量，并对此提出一系列的长期照护服务的相关对策建议。

Abstract: With the deepening of population aging and aging in China, the progress of medical technology has made obvious changes in the spectrum of major diseases in China, and the prevalence of chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and malignant tumors has increased. The incidence of disabilities and obstacles related to population aging has increased, and the disabled elderly will face difficulties in taking care of themselves. The base number of disabled elderly in China has increased greatly In this paper, ARIMA model is used to predict the number of disabled elderly people according to the data of Shanghai from 1995 to 2019, and a series of suggestions on long-term care services are put forward.