中国天然气生产供应能力的影响因素分析及对策研究

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Countermeasure Research on LNG Production and Supply Capacity in China

摘要: 由于我国天然气(Liquefied natural gas, LNG)生产供给能力受到众多不确定性因素的影响，因此本文首先整理11项影响LNG生产供给能力的不确定性因素，再利用灰关联分析从这些不确定性因素中萃取重要关键因素，接着再利用TRIZ分析建立LNG产业在生产供给能力的转型与发展战略。本文根据灰关联分析找出6项关键因素，并使用TRIZ建立11项改善策略，可归纳为三类，分别为：气源供给策略、气源采购策略、以及气源储运策略，同时拟定短、中、长期三阶段战略发展先后顺序，为LNG能源产业在生产供给能力的转型与发展战略提供决策支撑。

Abstract: China’s LNG production and supply capability is affected by many uncertain factors. Therefore, this paper first summarizes 11 uncertain factors that affect LNG production and supply capability. Next, the grey relational analysis is used to extract important key factors from these uncertain factors. Finally, TRIZ analysis is used to establish the transformation and development strategy of the LNG industry in production and supply capability. This article identified 6 key factors based on grey relational analysis, and used TRIZ to establish 11 improvement strategies, which can be summarized into three categories: The supply strategy of gas source, the procurement strategy of gas source, and the storage and transportation strategy of gas source. Meanwhile, a three-stage strategic development sequence of short, medium and long-term is formulated to provide decision-making support for the transformation and development strategy of the LNG energy industry in production and supply capability.