数字经济发展对出口贸易韧性的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Digital Economy Development on the Resilience of Export Trade

摘要: 世界百年未有之大变局下，国际贸易不断受到全球经济发展不确定性的冲击，增强出口贸易韧性成为抵御贸易风险冲击的关键。数字经济的发展给出口贸易韧性的提升带来了契机。文章利用2009至2022年全国31个省市面板数据，使用熵值法测算其数字经济发展水平，运用双向固定效应模型探究数字经济发展对出口贸易韧性的影响以及技术创新的中介效应。研究发现：数字经济发展对出口贸易韧性的提升有显著的促进作用，技术创新起到中介作用。基于地区的异质性分析发现，数字经济发展对出口贸易韧性增强的促进作用在沿海地区更为显著。

Abstract: Under the great changes in the world unseen in a century, international trade is constantly impacted by the uncertainty of global economic development, and enhancing the resilience of export trade has become the key to resisting the impact of trade risks. The development of the digital economy has brought opportunities to improve the resilience of export trade. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2022, this paper uses the entropy method to measure the level of digital economy development, and uses the two-way fixed effect model to explore the impact of digital economy development on the resilience of export trade and the mediating effect of technological innovation. The results show that the development of digital economy has a significant role in promoting the improvement of export trade resilience, and technological innovation plays an intermediary role. Based on regional heterogeneity analysis, it is found that the promotion effect of digital economy development on the resilience of export trade is more significant in coastal areas.