基于城市固定效应模型的珠三角地区人口集聚对经济发展的影响

The Impact of Population Agglomeration on Economic Development of the Pearl River Delta Based on Urban Fixed Effect Model

摘要: 人口集聚是经济发展的重要因素，然而其作用方向并未得到一致结论。本文在厘清人口集聚对经济发展质量影响的基础上，测算珠三角九市人口集聚度与经济发展质量，构建2012年~2021年珠三角九市面板数据，采用城市固定效应模型和中介效应模型，检验珠三角人口集聚对经济发展质量的影响及市场需求的机制作用。研究发现：一、珠三角人口集聚能显著地促进经济发展质量的提升，并通过了稳健性检验，在处理内生性问题后结论依然保持一致。二、人口集聚通过扩大市场需求，提高经济发展质量的机制作用显著。上述研究结论对珠三角人口集聚管理具有启示意义。一、要充分发挥人口集聚优势。二、要持续深化供给侧结构性改革。

Abstract: Population agglomeration is an important factor in economic development, yet the direction of its role has not been unanimously concluded. On the basis of clarifying the impact of population agglomeration on the quality of economic development, this paper measures the degree of population agglomeration and the quality of economic development in the nine cities of the Pearl River Delta (PRD), constructs a panel data of the nine cities of the PRD for 2012~2021, adopts the urban fixed effect model and the intermediary effect model to test the impact of population agglomeration on the quality of economic development and the mechanism of market demand in the PRD. The study finds that: First, Population agglomeration in the PRD significantly contributes to the quality of economic development and passes the robustness test, and the conclusions remain consistent after dealing with endogeneity issues. Second, population agglomeration plays a significant role in the mechanism of improving the quality of economic development through expanding market demand. The above findings are instructive for the management of population agglomeration in the PRD. First, the advantages of population agglomeration should be fully utilized. Second, we should continue to deepen the supply-side structural reform.