基于Leslie模型不同生育政策下的人口预测

Population Prediction under Different Fertility Policies Based on the Leslie Model

摘要: 人口对中国经济发展影响巨大，而生育政策直接影响着人口的发展趋势。本文通过建立Leslie人口预测模型，研究了在计划生育政策下总和生育率取1.4和全面二孩政策下总和生育率取1.6我国中长期的人口总量变化趋势以及老龄化发展趋势。结果表明，在全面二孩政策下，至2088年，我国人口将稳定在13.5亿左右，短期内依旧面临着巨大的人口压力；同时，全面二孩政策有助于减缓人口老龄化的程度，但是短期内无法做到避免老龄化程度加剧。进一步地，为了更好地研究影响人口变化的因素，本文针对总和生育率，选取了生育政策、经济发展水平、城镇化水平这三个因素建立了总和生育率的线性回归模型，显著性检验表明三个因素的影响是显著的，并预测了至2053年的总和生育率。

Abstract: Population has a huge impact on China’s economic development, and the fertility policy directly affects the development trend of this population. By establishing Leslie population forecasting model, this paper studies the medium and long term population change trend and aging development trend of China under the family planning policy with the total fertility rate of 1.4 and the universal two-child policy with the total fertility rate of 1.6. The results show that under the universal two-child policy, China’s population will stabilize at about 1.35 billion by 2088, but it still faces huge population pressure in the short term. At the same time, the universal two-child policy can help slow down the degree of population aging, but it can not avoid the aging degree in the short term. Further, in order to better study the factors affecting population change, this paper selects three factors, namely fertility policy, economic development level and urbanization level, to establish a linear regression model of total fertility rate. The significance test shows that the effect of the three factors is significant and predicts the total fertility rate up to 2053.