三孩政策背景下三孩生育意愿的影响因素及提升对策研究——基于CGSS2021数据的实证分析

Research on the Influencing Factors and Enhancing Countermeasures of Three-Child Birth Intention in the Context of Three-Child Policy—An Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS2021 Data

摘要: 面对持续低迷的人口出生率，为了积极应对中国人口老龄化的突出现状和中国劳动力人口优势逐渐消失的趋势，进一步优化生育政策，促进中国人口长期均衡发展，2021年国家进一步优化生育政策，将“全面二孩”政策调整为“放开三孩”政策生育政策。虽然国家逐步放开生育并鼓励生育，但实际上愿意生育三个孩子的育龄夫妇仍占少数。文章旨在通过对2021年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)的截面数据进行回归分析，探讨育龄人群的个人特征、家庭特征与其三孩生育意愿之间的关系。主要结论有：受教育程度越高，育龄人群三孩生育意愿越低，教育程度较高的人群可能更倾向于专注于事业发展或者享受自由的生活方式；所在家庭拥有房产数量越多，育龄人群三孩生育意愿越强，家庭拥有房产数量与生育意愿之间的关系涉及到经济稳定、生活质量和家庭规划等因素。主要建议有：制定相应的人性化的鼓励生育政策并对受教育程度高的群体进行再宣传；出台婴幼儿托育的相关政策措施并搭建多层次的住房供应体系；加强三孩生育及其配套政策的宣传。

Abstract: In the face of a persistently low birth rate, and in order to actively respond to the prominent status quo of China’s aging population and the trend of China’s labour force demographic advantage gradually disappearing, further optimize the fertility policy and promote the long-term balanced development of China’s population, the State will further optimize the fertility policy in 2021 by adjusting the “comprehensive two-child” policy to a “liberalized three-child” policy. In 2021, the State will further optimise its fertility policy, adjusting the “comprehensive two-child” policy to a “liberalised three-child” policy. Although the state is gradually liberalising and encouraging childbearing, the number of couples of childbearing age who are willing to have three children is still in the minority. The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between the personal characteristics and family characteristics of the childbearing age group and their willingness to have three children through regression analyses of cross-sectional data from the 2021 China General Social Survey (CGSS). The main conclusions are: the higher the education level, the lower the willingness to have three children of the childbearing age group, those with higher levels of education may be more inclined to focus on career advancement or enjoy a lifestyle of freedom; the higher the number of properties owned by the family, the higher the willingness to have three children of the childbearing age group, the relationship between the number of properties owned by a household and fertility intentions is related to factors such as economic stability, quality of life and family planning. The main recommendations are: to formulate corresponding humane policies to encourage childbearing and re-promote them to the group with high education level; to introduce relevant policies and measures on infant and childcare and build a multi-level housing supply system; to strengthen the publicity of three-child childbearing and its supporting policies.