养老服务服务人员供需匹配分析——基于GM(1,1)模型的供需预测

Matching Analysis of Supply and Demand of Elderly Service Providers—Demand and Supply Forecasts Based on the GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 本文根据基于统计年鉴中的宏观数据，利用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型分析老龄化背景下老年人对养老护理员数量的需求情况，并结合民政统计年鉴中的养老机构职员数量数据，初步分析了养老护理工作的供需匹配现状。从此入手分析养老护理员培养方法及培养建议。并提出应加强养老护理员的职业教育及专业化教育，提高养老护理人员的职业认同感从而综合提高养老护理员的数量从而缓解进一步的数量配置不匹配及深度的年龄分布不平衡问题。

Abstract: This paper analyzes the demand for the number of elderly caregivers by the elderly in the context of aging according to the macro data based on the statistical yearbook, using the GM(1,1) grey prediction model, and combines with the data on the number of staff of elderly care institutions in the Civil Affairs Statistical Yearbook, to preliminarily analyze the current situation of matching the supply and demand of elderly care work. From there, it starts to analyse the training methods and training suggestions for elderly care workers. It is also proposed that the vocational and professional education of elderly caregivers should be strengthened, and the sense of professional identity of elderly caregivers should be improved so as to comprehensively increase the number of elderly caregivers, thus alleviating further mismatch in the number of elderly caregivers and further imbalance in the age distribution of elderly caregivers.