基于合成控制法下内陆自贸区政策的实施对其省内经济贸易的影响研究——以河南省为例

Research on the Impact of the Implementation of Inland Free Trade Zone Policies on the Economy and Trade within Henan Province Based on the Synthetic Control Method—A Case Study of Henan Province

摘要: 在经济全球化的大背景下，中国为了化解区域经济一体化和经济全球化带来的负面影响，积极响应“一带一路”倡议，通过分阶段建立自由贸易区，不断扩大对外开放，并坚持出口导向型发展。本研究以河南省自由贸易区在该省外贸经济中的作用为主线，分析了其现状及存在的问题。随后，定性分析了河南自贸区对经济贸易的积极作用，并通过合成控制法实证分析了这种促进作用的内在机制。研究结果表明，河南自贸区的建立提高了该省的贸易顺差，尤其对出口贸易起到了较大的促进作用，而对进口贸易有一定程度的抑制，但对河南省的进口贸易推动作用仍有待提高。最后，针对自贸区在贸易和经济推进过程中存在的问题，提出了针对性的解决措施。

Abstract: In the context of economic globalization, in order to resolve the negative impact of regional economic integration and economic globalization, China actively responded to the “the Belt and Road” initiative by establishing a free trade area in stages, continuously expanding opening up, and adhering to export-oriented development. This study focuses on the role of the Henan Free Trade Zone in the province’s foreign trade economy, and analyzes its current situation and existing problems. Subsequently, a qualitative analysis was conducted on the positive impact of the Henan Free Trade Zone on economic trade, and the underlying mechanism of this promoting effect was empirically analyzed through the synthetic control method. The research results indicate that the establishment of the Henan Free Trade Zone has increased the trade surplus of the province, especially in promoting export trade and inhibiting import trade to a certain extent. However, the promotion of import trade in Henan Province still needs to be improved. Finally, targeted solutions were proposed to address the issues that exist in the trade and economic promotion process of free trade zones.