基于Leslie模型的三孩政策下中国人口预测与分析

Population Forecast and Analysis under China’s Three-Child Policy Based on the Leslie Model

摘要: 本研究利用Leslie模型对三孩政策在中国实施后可能产生的人口影响进行了预测与分析。结果显示，三孩政策的实施可能会在短期内提高生育率，导致人口总数增加；全国总人口将于2035年末到达顶峰，突破13.6亿，之后将逐年下降，到2070年，全国总人口将减少为11.6亿。我国未来65岁及以上人口比重将大幅增加，并且总体上呈现逐年上升的趋势。这表明即使实行了三孩政策也只能缓解老龄化速度，并不能从源头上解决老龄化问题。

Abstract: This study utilized the Leslie model to forecast and analyze the potential population impacts of China’s implementation of the Three-Child Policy. The results indicate that the policy may initially increase the fertility rate, leading to a rise in the total population. The national population is projected to peak by the end of 2035, exceeding 1.36 billion, and thereafter decline annually. By 2070, the total population is expected to decrease to 1.16 billion. The proportion of individuals aged 65 and above in China will significantly increase in the future, showing an overall upward trend annually. This suggests that even with the Three-Child Policy in place, it can only alleviate the pace of aging rather than fundamentally solve the issue.